I've been seeing a lot of calls about this incoming downturn (especially HN), does anyone have any articles/analysis they can point me to? Would love to read up on the state of it.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=712198
And one from 2011:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2868728
And here's one from 2012:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3947923
Here's one from 2014:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411
And here's one from 2016:
The truth is that no one really knows when the crash will come. But it will come eventually.
As they should be, unless they plan to retire in the near future. Attempting to time the market is generally folly.
Another kind of interesting thing is the amount of money going into index funds. These index funds buy stocks based on their position in the market. The influx of capital allows companies to stay in the S&P 500 that before may have been removed. This optimizes for whether or not you're in the S&P 500 and not actually company performance. Decoupling your survival from reality is not a healthy ecosystem.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/10115781/1/investors-holding...
HN comments can be excellent on certain topics, finance is certainly not one of them.
And here's the live (well, lagging a few months, but this is a very slow signal anyhow) version: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14950203
As you said, it's a very slow signal. The model predicts what will happen over 10 years. It doesn't say whether there will be steady X% YOY growth, or a massive plunge and then a compensating rebound.