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I'm not saying that Musk has solved fsd or that he will in the near future, but if you asked anyone with experience building cell phones in 2006 if the iPhone was possible they would have said absolutely not. Technological progress is inherently unpredictable even for experts. Musk has some really good people working for him and their datasets get bigger every day, I wouldn't rule Tesla out just yet.

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Their datasets aren't useful for the problems that make driving hard. Musk is making claims which are paper thin false. If he weren't making these kinds of claims I'd take him more seriously. I promise you that the reasons this is ludicrous are extremely solid.

Edit: fwiw I've actually taken a look at a number of waymos internal systems, and sat down with people who worked on autopilot.

If Tesla doesn’t have the right training data then no one does. Tesla has both simulations and vast amounts of real world data from cars all over the world. Extracting depth maps from 2d images is a solved problem, which negates the need for Lidar. Best I can tell Tesla is the closest out of everyone to solving self driving. I don’t think they’ll solve it by next year, but If I had to guess I’d say 2.5 to 3 years from now Tesla will have relatively safe self driving cars.

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