> Rising popularity of electric cars Currently very slow - needs to accelerate a lot to be significant in 2030 (thats only 11 years).

> increasing vehicle efficiency in general There is not much to gain, the vehicles are gaining weight in the last 2 decades (SUVs etc.). Thats eating up the small improvements in efficiency. A real big improvement is not in sight.

> potential legislation targeting climate change We can hope for that, but with Trump in charge and Merkel in Auto-Germany ruling the EU it won't really happen. Hopefully this will change.