That is up from <1% five years ago, in a market where demand spurs demand by increasing availability of charging points etc. Meanwhile the EV market is currently production capacity constrained and multiple companies are expanding production capacity.

I doubt we're going to be at 100% electric cars in ten years but I would not be surprised if it was somewhere in the mid double digits by then. And by that point it becomes a lot easier to target ICE cars with legislation because there is a proven viable alternative.

> The increase in efficiency is more than offset by the growth in overall car market

Any given factor is more than offset by the growth in the overall car market. But you add them all together.

> Potential legislation in China? India? Emerging markets? Sorry but nothing suggests that is happening

China has a slate of domestic electric car companies and it's exactly their style to pass legislation that favors domestic companies over foreign competitors. Climate change provides them a really good justification to do that here.

And carbon taxes generate revenue, which makes it easy to make them revenue neutral. Use the money to lower other taxes or fund a UBI. This knocks out the "harms the poor/developing countries" argument because the cost becomes only the cost difference between fossil fuels and alternatives, which is rapidly approaching zero.

Moreover, most of the current oil demand comes from the US and Europe. If either of them, much less both, passed relevant legislation then not only would their own demand fall off, the increased economies of scale and network effects that would spur in alternatives would also make them more cost effective in countries without any such legislation.

Starting from the 2019 the range and price came to the point where they are suddenly viable in EU.

Then there will be a used electric car wave because of the low-power charging infrastructure catching up and making older short range models actually useful.

S-curve, man, S-curve. The experts say that around 2023-25 sales prices of EV's will be down to equal ICE's, and EV sales will take off like a rocket.