Step 1: Get list of recent past problems at different refineries from news or people there after the fact or any number of ways.
Step 2: Get past location data that includes these periods (but spans a much larger time).
Step 3: Analyze what's different about the problem times compared to normal operation.
In some cases, it might actually be as simple as X% of work force doesn't come in for normal shift on what is otherwise a normal day.