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Buy if you need/want to buy. Refinancing a mortgage after a rate decline is fairly easy and you’re likely to get a better purchase price in a (locally) high rate environment and carry that lower purchase price into your refinance. The diff in purchase price likely more than covers your refinance costs.

The current Bankrate benchmark 30-year is 4.17%.

That is, by historical standards, absurdly low. The likelihood that a rate drop will 1. occur, and 2. materially contribute to your financial well-being, is very low.

Part of the reason is that when rates drop, prices tend to rise.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh

"consensus among investors is that interest rates for long-term debt will fall" - could you elaborate on this? Are you suggesting e.g. the rate available for a 5 year fixed mortgage is expected to fall, or that rates will fall over the next 30 years?

Fixed mortgage rates are already historically low