I suppose my point is I distrust your certainty. It's quite possible 20 petaflops may be enough. Maybe we will need many exaflops. We don't really know.

Moravec's estimate which seems quite well reasoned puts it much lower, about 100 terraflops which you can now get in a GPU https://www.scan.co.uk/products/pny-nvidia-tesla-v100-16-gb-...

It's true they have not suddenly become conscious.