No, we can reason about this fairly easily knowing the extraction costs of calories from macronutrients. You're correct in that macronutrient content can affect CO, but you're vastly overstating the amount. There is no model of digestion we've come up with that accounts for much more than 10% of calories going to digestion, so even if you max that out, you still end up with pretty similar levels of obesity. We cannot fix this problem without radically reducing the amount we eat, regardless of the macronutrient content.
> I seem to recall a bunch of animal models where compliance was controlled for and still showed a strong correlation between insulin and set weight.
Please send links, all I can do is respond to the specifics of an actual study.