Actually, given the recent interest in tethered blimps hosting high-altitude turbines, that's not as dumb an idea as it sounds. The prototypes shown so far generally use helium which is expensive and in limited supply.
Same with solar, in the dead of winter the sun is at quite a low angle in the sky, not even above the tree tops, and I doubt there's much to be gained either from photovoltaic solar or using it to directly heat water for the house.
According to the US Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy:
"Countries such as the United States, which lie in the middle latitudes, receive more solar energy in the summer not only because days are longer, but also because the sun is nearly overhead.
The sun's rays are far more slanted during the shorter days of the winter months. Cities such as Denver, Colorado, (near 40° latitude) receive nearly three times more solar energy in June than they do in December." [1]
Looking at these maps [2][3] for solar production in January and July, it seems like a lot of places drop by around 50% summer to winter. So it's a significant drop, but unless you're extremely far north, there's still energy to be harvested.
[1] https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/solar-radiation-b...
[2] January: https://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/map_pv_us_january_dec2008.jp...
[3] July: https://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/map_pv_us_july_dec2008.jpg
(For some scenarios this might even be a good solution without the heat pump, just run the water through a radiator. Is this something that people have tried?)
Now I don't know whether an equivalent pv system is cheaper in absolute terms than a thermal system, but from what I can work out, the marginal cost of adding extra pv to cover hot water is cheaper that adding a separate thermal system.
So yes they have different uses, pv generates electricity which can be used for a variety of things, thermal just generates heat. So if pv is cheaper or has a quicker payback, it seems like a no brainer to me.
Edit: Not sure what you mean by 'pay-off'. Solar thermal can be as simple as a black bucket sitting in the sun. It doesnt get much cheaper than that :D
It's counter-intuitive, but the reality is that PV has become much cheaper, while solar hot-water panels plus plumbing are expensive.
Plus you can use any surplus PV for multiple purposes.
A simple passive open-loop system is very cheap, and adequate for a hot water during warmer seasons (if you dont need hot water in the morning, i may add :D)
During colder seasons, you would need a closed loop system with a heat exchanger (often a heat pump, which you can power by PV) and insulated storage. Thats when it starts to get expensive, and the effective efficiency can be decreased if you are pumping more heat than you consume. This is an alternative to the air-source heat pump that your research probably used for comparison.
That said, I can totally see how PV could fulfill a hot water need right through the year, its just WAY more expensive than a low-tech solar thermal system (and likely less efficient in the summer).
Again, no harm in using both if you have the funds (and space) :D
Payoff as in if you buy a pv system it will pay for itself quicker than a thermal system. Electricity is more expensive and valuable than 'heat' (read gas substitute) so even if the pv system is more expensive, the savings are greater, which offsets the higher purchase price.
Hey if you want to shower under a black bucket, go for it :)
Could you name the particular brands and models of PVs you are using that produce 25% in the field? 15% under ideal conditions is more typical and your 25% is above current state of the art available for home installation. Also interested in your heat pumps above 3. Are these geothermal? If not, who makes them?
Normal set up is going to be 15% max on the PV and 3 on the heatpump, for 45% max, but more typically 25% as the PV is seldom set up to capture ideally.
"The COP for heat pumps range from 3.2 to 4.5 for air source heat pumps to 4.2 to 5.2 for ground source heat pumps"
The most efficient panels are at 22% right now, and that's with no overcast conditions or rain, sun directly overhead, and full tracking. The 22% are significantly more expensive. Most panels have around 15% efficiency, when new, under ideal seasonal, weather, tracking and lighting conditions. Quite a bit less when not.
I have a self built solar water heater and a house designed around passive solar. This handles heating and cooling sufficiently without grid inputs. My house stays at temperate conditions year round and my monthly energy bill, consisting of non-heating uses, is around $25/month on average.