If you start expanding beyond a small set of specific companies, don't forget to find data for delisted companies to avoid survivorship bias.
If you start expanding beyond a small set of specific companies, don't forget to find data for delisted companies to avoid survivorship bias.
E(log(wealth)) - c * std(log(wealth))
or
E(wealth) - c * std(wealth)
The first one is better for building up wealth over a long time, but when I looked at Modern Portfolio Theory, it is suggesting to use the second formula.
I'm also planning to spend about 5% of my wealth every year, and the second number gives me lower risk in the short time frame, so I think something in the middle would be a better criterion.
I try not to worry about stdev and focus on the soundness of my process, but in practice I have money split into higher-risk where I try to be clever, and low-risk failsafe investments to raise the floor of the worst case scenario.