Its people who've been stratified out of the workforce, and can't pay insane rates for education of either university level or trades.
How exactly are we tracking this? I know in the USA, we cheer and hooray when the unemployment numbers go down, but those are pegged to "how many people get unemployment"... And after at most 2 years, they drop off. And that makes the numbers on 'unemployment' go down!
Well, yes and no. It’s true that university is expensive (but you don’t need to repay loans until you are earning over a certain threshold). However it’s also true that if you take an apprenticeship a) you will be paid during training and b) a skilled tradesman or tradeswoman can easily out-earn most graduates, and this is well known.
if you can find and be accepted by one
In my area, we have a few trade unions and a steamfitters training facility. They take new potential apprentices 2x a year. When I looked into one a while back, there were over 500 people in front of me on the _reserve_ list. I nope'd out and looked for other avenues. There were a few others, but also had similar insane lines with estimates of years before getting an apprenticeship.
So yeah, while that path does exist and costs no cash out of my pocket, its mostly wishful thinking that this is a "get in, learn and do, and get paid" and more of a "hurry up and wait... maybe".
I'm not sure where you get the idea that incels are shut-ins, or an American take on what is essentially the concept of shut-ins in Japan. While I'm sure some hikkikomori do harbor such opinions, I find no reason to think they essentially do, or that it tends to it. If anything, I'd say that the phenomenon is much more similar to MGTOW (Men Going Their Own Way), which seeks to reject romantic involvement, at least with women. Again, even that is a stretch.
Where do you get the idea that incels tend to be anime fans? I have the idea that people with more time on their hands who face social rejection turn to media and worlds to the periphery, which anime and manga provide very well - whole worlds of immersive entertainment that's produced every day, huge fan communities to throw yourself into. This is why it might apply to hikkis and NEETs.
I'd also question the idea that hikkikomori are simply less angry incels, or something along those lines. Feeling rejected and a distaste for "3D", opting for the world of fantasy is actually almost the opposite of the incel phenomenon, which is very much focused on what they take to be real world causes to their real world problems.
Of course a woman with traditional family and religious desires is still going to want to be treated with respect, so maybe that's a problem (from what I've seen of the "red pill" cult that overlaps incels). A major gripe of stay at home moms I know is that men do not respect the importance of what they do or the validity of their choice and look down on them.
The incel movement is mostly a self fulfilling prophecy. A group of men who failed to get partners and rather than attributing the failure to themselves, attributed it to the women. Thinking that they are low quality males and it is the women’s fault that their standards are too high. In the absence of this belief, they could probably find someone as you say. But they have convinced themselves that women as a collective will not accept men of their caliber. It’s an unusual message of “it’s not my fault I’m bad” and you won’t find much logic to it. Basically it’s angry men with low self esteem but high entitlement.
They are not closed in their rooms long term nor necessary unemployed. They go to school, gym, meet like minded friends.
Is this true? Although I get the impression that the incel movement is right-leaning, is there any reason to say that it's an essentially anti-socialist movement? What are its political goals? Is it even a movement?