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This anecdotal, but I have observed, in my experience in Europe, that short-term forecasts are really inaccurate in countries like Belgium and Italy while, for example, they are really, really spot-on in mainland Poland. So, my guess is that it really depends on the kind of climate and, perhaps, on the impact of climate change in that area.

I would attribute that to the substantial Soviet investment in meteorology.

I would rather to some longer term static patterns especially in summer or winter on large plains in Poland vs more of an unpredictable sea climate in Belgium and Italy.

I know. I had been tending large garden (roses and lawn) in my friends house in Toscana this summer. And I had been looking for a rain everyday :-) and observing the change in forecasts and acctual result.

I've seen similar in California. Forecasts are really not always that accurate even within 24h.