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Comment by adwf | Hacker News Reader

I honestly don't think a Disney streaming platform should scare Netflix that much. You can get the entire classic Disney DVD back catalogue for ~£200, why would parents buy a streaming service for £10-20/month for years on end?

And that's the whole classic catalogue - when you bear in mind that kids will happily watch the same old Frozen DVD over and over again, I don't see it as a huge compelling offering. Even adding all of Marvel, I still believe people will prefer to pick and choose their favourite individual media over an expensive subscription.

It's the continuous flow of new and unique TV/movies that is really working for Netflix. Disney just don't output anywhere near the same content hours to make a subscription worthwhile, and kids probably wouldn't care even if they did.

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Disney are much, much bigger than you seem to think. They own Pixar, Lucasfilm and Marvel Studios. They already own a large chunk of the US cable TV market, including ABC and ESPN. They have just gained regulatory apprival to buy 21st Century Fox. They aren't newcomers to streaming, because they have a 30% stake in Hulu, which will increase to 60% after the Fox deal is completed. They also own BAMTech Media, which provides streaming video services for the MLB, the NHL, the PGA Tour and WWE.

Netflix should be very, very worried about Disney's streaming ambitions.

The sport is probably the most interesting out of all of those mentioned. There will always be a market for sports subscriptions, so they could have a very competitive offering there that Netflix aren't even involved in.

Marvel, Lucasfilm, etc. I'm still not seeing it. Two or three movies a year that I can pick up on DVD/Bluray cheaper. And that's if they're even worth buying on DVD after having watched them once in the cinema. Marvel movies have been wearing fairly thin, and Star Wars is showing similar fatigue.

I'm not saying they won't have a big market, Disney are huge afterall. I'm just saying that I really don't see them as strictly a direct Netflix killing competitor. They're in a slightly different game, content-wise, and Disney's biggest enemy will be itself.

> Marvel movies have been wearing fairly thin

Outside of your bubble, Infinity War is the highest-grossing film of all time. (With Black Panther following in 2nd or 3rd place if I'm not mistaken.)

Sure, Marvel does not particularly contribute to the pantheon of cinema, but it's nowhere near "wearing thin" commercially. Quite the contrary actually.

Disney owns ABC, Marvel Studios and Lucasfilm. Not mention ABC Family and existing Disney cable channels. Between those assets they could make a very compelling streaming service. Something Netflix knows well since they were leaning hard on Marvel shows for a while.

Marvel and Lucasfilm are still very much in my "I've already got the DVDs" territory. The Marvel TV shows never really lived upto the hype for me and if Disney need to PG'ify everything, they'll have a hard time.

I'm probably underestimating some of the Disney kids TV shows that I've never heard of, but are they even on Netflix right now? Isn't Disney just going to cannibalise their own existing TV market?

The Disney kids TV shows are on Netflix right now, yes. There are a lot of those shows that appeal to toddlers up to the tween age ranges. They have a very large amount of content besides just movies

Thanks for the info, had a quick look but couldn't work out which were Disney.

So it really becomes a question of whether people are buying Netflix just for their kids content and will cancel one for t'other if Disney pull all their content, or whether they're happy to buy both.

If they only want to buy one, then maybe they'll switch.

If they're happy with both, then it actually helps Netflix bottom line as they no longer have to license expensive movies from Disney.

It's a balancing equation between whether the people they lose outweigh the licensing costs for Disney. Which is exactly the same situation they've always been in anyway competing with traditional cable offerings.

I see a challenge, but not a considerable Netflix killer like some people try to make out.

You also have to consider people living with their parents, who will move out, and start their own family.

..and sadly Netflix often does not have the dubbing in many languages, so my non-english speaking toddlers prefer to watch other stuff.

It's painful, really, I just want the Mickey mouse clubhouse in Italian and am unable to obtain it legally.

The day an international Disney streaming service appears I'm guaranteed to sign up.

There are a lot of Disney series, and all the girls in primary school have heard of them. Disney are strong on this segment

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