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Comment by xxgreg | Hacker News Reader

Getting the big power plant and mine operators to agree to a 2038 deadline is meaningful. They were involved in the process for coming up with the phase-out path.

I can't imagine Peabody or Koch signing off on a 2038 deadline in the US.

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They don't need to sign off on a deadline in the US, it has been and will go away regardless. That's obviously due to the US having enormous reserves of cheap natural gas. You effectively have one big energy segment happy to squeeze another to death. Coal use will get more and more expensive in the US as its decline reaches a cost inflection point in the near future, if we're not already there now. Every aspect of coal electricity generation gets more expensive as it loses economies of scale. By 2038 natural gas + wind + solar will push coal to well below 10% in the US, without any additional government intervention. If the Feds apply pressure, it'll go that much faster / lower.

Doesn't burning natural gas produce just as much CO2 as coal?

No, to create the same amount of thermal energy, burning gas produces about 30% less CO2. The main reason is, that coal is pretty much pure carbon while gas is mostly CH4, so you are burning carbon and hydrogene. That is also the reason, hydrogene is mostly produced by splitting natural gas and producing CO2 along.

No. It can be about half as much CO2 for the same power output due to natural gas plants also being more efficient.

...this is somewhat counter-acted by accidental leakage of methane (itself a potent greenhouse gas), but not entirely.

Oh, that's good to know, thanks.

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