- A motion of no confidence has been tabled and will be debated and voted on tomorrow
- If the motion carries (i.e. the Government loses):
1. Theresa May must resign as Prime Minister
2. There can be a 14 day window in which a new government is formed, which must be approved by a motion of confidence. This is likely to be waived
3. There will be a general election. Theresa May will remain leader of the Tories. The Tories will lose
4. Corbyn will then seek a deal that retains customs union. This is likely to take time, so he will likely seek a delay from Parliament on Article 50 for such a deal to be agreed
5. We leave with a customs union probably in Autumn of 2019
- Most Tories know this, so will support the PM in a vote of no confidence, and the Government may win it. In that scenario:
1. Theresa May stays Prime Minister
2. She will go back to the EU and demand a new deal, likely with a hard time limit on the NI backstop, the main issue that caused tonight's defeat
3. At the same time, she will ask "senior Parliamentarians" what they would need if that were not possible
4. The only thing that will carry a vote in Parliament right now other than a customs union deal (which she has personally refused to engage with), is a second referendum
5. If the backstop isn't removed, it's therefore quite likely Article 50 is rescinded and a new referendum happens this Summer. It's likely such a referendum will have two questions: Do you wish to leave or remain?; and, in the event of a vote towards leave, would you accept the backstop or would you prefer "No Deal".
6. This will either result in a Remain vote and possibly a civil war (no, seriously), or a Leave vote that risks breaking up the UK with the NI needing to align with the Republic and, so, a civil war but contained to NI, or a Leave deal with support for "No Deal" and a default position of WTO rules
All outcomes have downsides. There is no winning here, and there is no situation in which we get to revoke Article 50 and the UK remains in the EU and all is well. It will leave 17m people in an absolute rage, and they have already murdered one MP. It'll get worse.