The closest thing I can find for good evidence is Fisler '14 [1], which did indeed suggest that HTDP teaches Functional Decomposition in such a way that CS1 students are better able to tackle short-but-complex problems by the end of their CS1. I find this work compelling, and I look forward to applying the ideas inherent to my own courses. However, in the decade-plus that HTDP has been around, I have not been able to find any long term studies that back up the slew of claims made about how we "should" teach CS1. Language and paradigm arguments in general have not really born out any evidence[2].
I'm not saying HTDP is bad or Python is good or C++ is ideal. I'm saying we don't know much about any of this stuff. Relying on theoretical arguments is dangerous when it comes to pedagogy. For every positive experience you can share about HTDP, I can share a negative experience. It's great if you found a curriculum that works for you. But be very, very careful about whether you believe that curriculum should work for everyone.
[1] https://dl.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=2632346
[2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329544316_Introduct...