It's not necessary that the number of actual paths available is reduced by the imposition of "no layoffs", it can actually be increased. It seems counter logical. A restriction can lead to greater innovation that is stimulated by the restriction, there were I'd warrant far more places to get an alcoholic drink under prohibition than prior to its institution.
>you have less options, and therefore less paths to success //
A priori it seems right, but the successful paths aren't randomly distributed; perhaps there is a key employee who leaves under layoffs and the business fails (another business succeeding).
You can apply basic set theory to chaotic and complex psycho-temporal interactions.
But I agree, as I think you surmise, that we can't simplistically mathematically impute the "best" route will be with(|out) layoffs.