The estimates here were wrong because there was nothing to estimate at all - gig economy is a marketing buzzword for an unusually isolated yet reasonably substantial unemployment bracket. The upper bound of the bracket being the sub-minimum wage compensation that Uber pays their drivers[0] and the lower bound being the amortized cost of the cheapest vehicle that Uber lets drivers utilise for their 'gig'.

That's a really small demographic who would fit both criteria. Recently unemployed people and students come to mind.

Importantly - Uber knows this fact very well and are doing everything they can to survive until fully autonomous self driving cars reach mass production.

[0] https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-uber-driver-w...