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Buying iPhone 7 or 8, ie a one or two year old phone, practically guarantees that you'll hit the end of the road with iOS major version update availability one or two years earlier, which means you'll have to buy a new phone one or two years earlier. Not sure if the $100 or so that you save is worth losing a year of updates. In other words - adding $100 or so buys you a whole 'nother year or two of usage on your current purchase.

If they offered new phones for a lower price but with the software update support lifetime that matches the flagship phones, then they might have a killer product!

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I’m running both a 5S and 6S with latest iOS. An iPhone 8 should be good for st least five years.

The fact that the 5s got iOS 12 is more of an exception than the rule. The 5 stopped at iOS 10, and the 4s stopped at iOS 9, so the general trend should have stopped the 5s at 11.

The 5s was the first 64-bit ARM CPU in a phone, I've got my fingers crossed it might recieve iOS 13.

Aren't Apple OS updates typically tied to actual hardware constraints (vs a x-year obsolescence cycle)? With the 5 and iOS10, Apple stopped supported 32-bit hardware, right? I don't recall a time where Apple just said "that phone is too old and slow" - it's always been "that phone doesn't have [hardware architecture X]".

Point being, the cycle isn't known. The iPhone 7 could be supported for many years. Or, hardware design could change in 2019 and even the XS and XR could be obsolete.

If that was true, the 3GS, 4 and 4S should also have gotten iOS 10.

The trend isn’t linear

Apple doesn’t phase out their old hardware that quickly. I’m currently using an iPhone 6 with the latest iOS and no complaints.

But if you had bought the 5 when the 6 was new, you'd be stuck at iOS 10, which is missing several security updates, two iterations of new emojis, and many apps refusing to install or update by now.

That's still 2+ years longer than a non-iOS phone would stay current.

Only when you solely rely on the vendor for updates. While this is the only option on iOS devices this is not the case for Android where several third-party distributions can be used to keep older devices up to date. Some of these offer OTA updates which makes them usable for 'normal' users, i.e. those who want to use the device but are not that keen (or knowledgeable enough) to tinker with them.

Public stats on android usage per version contradict your theory. In overwhelming huge majority, those phones never get updated, ever. Most people don’t search the web for third party distribution. That’s just what the data shows us.

It doesn't contradict the theory. People can update to a later OS if they want to by visiting XDA. Just because they don't doesn't mean it's not possible.

And people who would do that are a tiny rounding error in comparison to the general market.

For 99%+ of the general market, if the update is not available by clicking update in their phone, it doesn't exist and end of support is when the carrier/OEM stops releasing them.

I never said that those people were the majority, nor did I say that everyone does it. Neither did the original poster. all we said was that it is possible to do, and you made the assertion about how many people do it.

That depends on whether the user had enough foresight to check on XDA whether the phone they're going to purchase is supported on XDA. Not all devices are, and most cheaper ones definitely aren't.

Because that was before the switch to 64 bit, and isn’t representative.

I guess, but that phone is 2 years older. I don’t expect or desire to be using this phone in 2 years.

two iterations of new emojis

OMG, somebody find me a fainting couch fast!

I celebrated when I received the chile pepper and the taco.

Most people don't think or know about that though, it will just be 'oh I didn't get the update' at most when the time comes.

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