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Prediction is at best a fools game. I wish people were more forgiving. Just, of course, be extra careful when predictions involve your money.

If predictors state their confidence and make falsifiable predictions then they can be fairly graded and compared. This is especially true when many other people are also making predictions about the same event.

Cringely is the stereotype of the pundit who makes a lot of really confident predictions that are just absurdly, comically wrong, over and over and over. But he's fun to read, so he gets read. Same as the analysts that you see on the news.

I love watching Jim Cramer, but I never take his stock picks. I like his analysis and use it as a representation of the majority of household investors looking at the short term. I find that entertaining, and I like watching the movement of stocks after his analysis.

However, when I make my own investments, I do more thorough that watching a guy make quick-fire guesses.

It really was. Impressive.

Prognostication has never been Cringely’s strong suit.