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Comment by jimtaguchi | Hacker News Reader

Just to get this out of the way, I see Apple shares currently presenting a huge buying opportunity. A good Christmas quarter will regain that lost 20 percent, and I don’t see any reason why Apple shouldn’t have a good Christmas quarter.

Yikes...

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Yes, that comment was a not well timed at all.

Prognostication has never been Cringely’s strong suit.

It really was. Impressive.

Prediction is at best a fools game. I wish people were more forgiving. Just, of course, be extra careful when predictions involve your money.

If predictors state their confidence and make falsifiable predictions then they can be fairly graded and compared. This is especially true when many other people are also making predictions about the same event.

Cringely is the stereotype of the pundit who makes a lot of really confident predictions that are just absurdly, comically wrong, over and over and over. But he's fun to read, so he gets read. Same as the analysts that you see on the news.

I love watching Jim Cramer, but I never take his stock picks. I like his analysis and use it as a representation of the majority of household investors looking at the short term. I find that entertaining, and I like watching the movement of stocks after his analysis.

However, when I make my own investments, I do more thorough that watching a guy make quick-fire guesses.

This just gives him something to write about next time.

That remark aged really well...

lol，yikes

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