I came here to say exactly the same thing. I'd be happy to stick money down on Trump still being in power by the end of 2019. And probably by the end of 2024 as well.
I think it's an example of a Silicon Valley filter bubble.
I think it's an example of a Silicon Valley filter bubble.
Currently about 73% yes
[edit] I suppose there is the chance of him pulling a Nixon and resigning before impeachment, as well as the chance of him dying. I consider both of those to be less likely; he is to confrontational to back down from just the threat of impeachment of a house with an opposition majority; if anything being impeached by a partisan vote would be fodder for his conservative base.
1: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Tr...
The volume may be too low to do much arbitrage.
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