They have the votes to impeach him in the House come Thursday; at that point it becomes more of a political calculation of when the timing is right. They don't want to be seen as jumping the gun, so it probably depends on the Mueller report or the various other investigations into his taxes, past business crookedness, illegal campaign payments, his 'non-profit' foundation, the inauguration funds, or the various and sundry other high crimes and misdemeanors.
To me it seems pretty unlikely that there’s a bulletproof case to actually remove trump from office. In two years we basically have the same sentiments that trump was involved in illegal activity that we did back in 2016. I’d hope our government wasn’t so broken that it would take 3/4 of a term to get someone out. I remember a lot of the right saying the same with Obama getting impeached, while he enjoyed a full two terms.
At the end of the day the impeachment cries seem much more like wishful thinking on behalf of the party not in power than a realistic outcome.
No matter what, I would bet my money on continued discord and breakdown.
Worse is the declarations of some in the Democratic Party of going not only after him but Pence and even Kavanaugh. Go after both President and Vice would be played out as a coup and hand Trump his greatest leverage ever. It would push a lot of independents back into his camp. We do not need the precedent, let alone set by trying to impeach for activities before he was President.
If we start prosecuting politicians for what they did before they entered office then it just comes down to a banana republic. where whomever is in power decides who they don't like and just take them down.
I think it's an example of a Silicon Valley filter bubble.
Currently about 73% yes
[edit] I suppose there is the chance of him pulling a Nixon and resigning before impeachment, as well as the chance of him dying. I consider both of those to be less likely; he is to confrontational to back down from just the threat of impeachment of a house with an opposition majority; if anything being impeached by a partisan vote would be fodder for his conservative base.
1: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Tr...
The volume may be too low to do much arbitrage.
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