The offline half doesn’t have that much money to spend, right? Making some assumptions and approximating, would it be wrong to say that potential gains from bringing new people online ≈ global GDP growth? Currently that’s in the low single digits.
Incumbents ignore low-margin, cost-conscious customers.
Innovators cater to customers the incumbents don't want and build a product that is worse than incumbent's in every area except cost.
Then innovators improve the product to capture the lower tier of incumbent's customer base, then work their way up to more profitable customers.
Incumbent wakes up too late, finds their customers moved to a product the incumbent always thought was worse.
Lesson: don't ignore large, underserved populations or you'll find your lunch has been eaten.
The 1000% growth when you're a startup does not exist when you're worth half a trillion.