Ok, buy deep OTM put options for tech stocks then?
They say the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I’d say the market wasn’t all that rational to begin with. At some level investing is a big game of chicken where you try to get out before everyone realizes how inflated it’s become.
As Taleb says, don’t tell me what you think, show me your portfolio.
"I'm confident in the advice im dispensing" and "I have no idea what I'm talking about".
No, it's not at all. Buying options is actively betting on both price and time targets, and carries a much different risk profile compared to simply avoiding a specific investment.
It has negative payoff after inflation, which is worse than other low to zero risk options (like savings accounts and govt bonds).
In one view, and with long return horizons, an index-based etf is a “will be around forever bet”, in that it bets there will be economic growth on average for as long as the dollar is worth anything. The main way it can go wrong is with hyper inflation.
Maybe going long, with 100% govt bonds is a decent fall eventually bet, but again, that’s targeting a very specific scenario where all of the economy crashes for a long time, but bonds still pay out (better than real estate or other physical goods).
Eg. suppose I want to bet Oracle will go under in 20 years, how do I do that?