> The return to authoritarianism can be seen as battening down the hatches
Obligatory not a "China expert" but I think you're very much correct. A lot of people don't seem to understand how different, and explosive, the political situation is in China. There is very little social trust, certainly little trust in government, and things could fly apart quickly and violently. The CCP is in a very difficult situation, trapped between fragmented and competing power bases, from a gigantic and angry rural underclass to godlike and kleptocratic SOEs to the tier-1 (and even 2) cities who by this point are practically mini-states with a law unto themselves. It is no surprise they have pulled every trick in the book to try to keep the music playing.
I totally agree that there needs to be a proper national health and social security system; this will be on the same magnitude as the "New Deal" the US had after the great depression. This could only be accomplished by a massive tax, and even more importantly power, overhaul. Xi Jinping is totally unreadable to me and I have no idea whether he is consolidating power just because that's what "strongmen" do or because he understands he needs it to execute on the desperately needed reforms. I doubt anyone not literally in the Politburo could say for sure. I hope it's the latter.
I keep saying this every year but the stakes just keep getting higher - things in China will come to a head sooner rather than later. And when they do, I want to be very far away, because it is a whole lot of shit, and a very big fan...