Comment by ransom1538 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by ransom1538 | Hacker News Reader

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No. The author here is cherry picking a timeframe [2012-2018]. Nice cherry pick. Unless you were smart enough to buy in 2012 that is gone: forever.

Home prices have barley hit their 2008 prices. These are prices ten years ago. If a stock hit its price from ten years ago I wouldn't consider it a "boom".

If you are a zillow user, look around at normal cities [Not manhattan,SF, or LA] linked below. If you have a minute, look at "Price / Tax History", and see what they sold at 2006/7/8. I see this pattern all over the US. I could add 20 more if you need.

To me we are almost back to normal. Sure this is anecdotal but, averaging all US home prices with a cherry pick is just as silly.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5435-White-Heron-Pl-Ovied...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6241-Gobernadores-Ln-Carm...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6600-Sutter-Ave-Carmichae...

I'm curious what pattern you're trying to illustrate with the '06-'08 home values compared to now, and why 10 years ago is something you consider "normal". The market crash showed that the valuation of homes from '06 - '08 was anything but "normal". And Zillow data definitely shows that median home values are quickly approaching 2008 levels, with a more natural and stable climb this time around.

Do you have a reason to consider 2008 as normal?

normal: %3-%5 yoy increases, basically a little under the mortgage rate. 2008 wasn’t normal that isn’t what I meant.

Yeah, I took your comment to mean something like "2008 wasn't normal. But imagine a "normal" price in 2008, and how it would have risen normally over ten years. Then maybe it would reach the actual 2008 price, which is about what we have in 2018."

Not sure if that's correct, but sounds plausible.

If housing is overvalued, mean returns lower than inflation would be better, though admittedly not "normal".

> Home prices have barley hit their 2008 prices. These are prices ten years ago.

The total inflation over the last ten years has been ~20%, so you would expect prices of a stable asset with the same intrinsic value to be ~20% higher. But the pre-2008 prices were a known bubble -- overvalued by significantly more than 20%.

What you're saying is that it currently isn't as bad as 2008, which is likely true without proving that housing isn't still overvalued now.

And if the prices in Florida are now overvalued somewhat, what does that tell you about the prices in SF?

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