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Comment by Animats | Hacker News Reader

It's already collapsing in the SF Bay Area. "PRICE REDUCED" signs are appearing. The bubble is popping. One real estate investor and one Realtor I know admit that prices have been dropping for most of 2018.

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The data does not reflect this. SF and the surrounding areas are mostly still rising...monthly is still going up and the yearly is up maybe 5%. Most other parts of California are weakening though in price on a monthly basis.

https://www.car.org/marketdata/data/countysalesactivity

It’s obvious things cooled off around August specifically during the tariff changes. If these trade talks get worse I imagine the market cooling even more.

other things applying downward pressure to high priced RE markets nationwide: the new tax law that reduces a taxpayer's savings from mortgage and property tax deductions, and rising mortgage interest rates

I don’t think SF area prices will ever “collapse” - it will just stabilize or dip. Even if we experienced a heavy recession there are too few homes for the number of people who live here. And a recession would only deter new construction.

Time will tell

> The bubble is popping.

... or just deflating a tad before it stabilizes and waits for the next big inflation.

I wish I shared your optimism.

I think of it as pessimism in the sense that SF real estate will never ever be affordable to the middle class buyer

Please tell my landlord this.

Unfortunately, idealized market theories notwithstanding, rent goes up in recessions as well as upswings and independent of vacancy rates.

https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf

That's because we still don't build enough. Watch as SB 50 dramatically changes rents in CA.

I hope so with all my heart.

But for example, this[0] (triangular!) lot is 1.6 million. So developed or not, low rents seem unlikely even in that neighborhood. At the risk of heresy, dare I ask if real-estate markets as they currently work have failed their communities?

[0] https://www.google.com/maps/@37.8134181,-122.2745241,3a,75y,...

I wouldn't draw any conclusions about the US housing market from SF Bay data lol.

This is city- and neighborhood- dependent. San Francisco as a whole is seeing 8% YoY gains [1], while Menlo Park has seen 0% median sales price growth [2]. Nearby Redwood City is seeing 10% growth [3].

The rate of increase is lower than in 2017, but most places in the SF Bay Area are still experiencing high growth rates. Those rates are apparently more in line with historical norms rather than the white-hot multiple-cash-offers waived-contingencies heyday of 2016 and 2017.

I don't doubt that there are many price drops. Realtors expecting offers 30% over ask likely were setting list prices with too much growth expectation and had to reset to the comparables' sales price. Last year using the current comps' sales prices would have been listing the home too low.

1. https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/San_Francisco-California/

2. https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Menlo_Park-California/

3. https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Redwood_City-California/

Seattle homes have reduced their prices, but sellers were trying to max out whatever they could get. The market has done a self-correction, but it is still a sellers market. Good homes still go for top dollar and go quickly.

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