CIA Intercepts Underpin Assessment Saudi Crown Prince Targeted Khashoggi
wsj.com
wsj.com
The intelligence agencies have a lot of credibility to earn back after the Snowden revelations. No claims should be trusted without conclusive source material.
The question is, why is the CIA trying to sway public opinion about this? Why do we tolerate the CIA or FBI being PR agencies for selectively leaked information? And why do we assume that their actions are in the national interest when it is not defined beyond platitudes about freedom.
Of course in this case, there would be no charges, or trials or anything of that nature, but I'd think the same principle is at work. It puts pressure on certain people when they let everyone know that they know. (Along with the not so subtle subtext reminding everyone that their information gathering reach is long, and their memory longer.)
Nor does it answer the question of why the agency chose to selectively promote the claim, which is the main issue.
We know from many other examples that hard data is used to sell and add credibility to analytical opinions that are at best informed hunches. Yet we are led to believe that the data speaks for itself.
Weren't Snowden's releases about the NSA, not the CIA?
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-id...
[[[ To any NSA and FBI agents reading my email: please consider ]]]
[[[ whether defending the US Constitution against all enemies, ]]]
[[[ foreign or domestic, requires you to follow Snowden's example. ]]]there's a difference between healthy skepticism of intelligence agencies and a grasping at straws to cast doubt on anything they do.
So those who claim MBS was responsible may be right or wrong. Without a clear definition of how his potential responsibility relates to US national interest, the matter isn’t even necessarily something the CIA should worry about at all.
By skipping that step and jumping right to PR to help fuel moral indignation in Americans, the CIA is way way way out of bounds.
The agency is not supposed to be a bunch of wise elders providing moral guidance, it’s supposed to protect national security.
Quite likely most senior CIA officials have far more blood on their hands than MBS.
What if CIA was told to do so? Apparently the SA has not paid /signed by it's deadline for a major weapons purchase. 15B I think... and oil is lower now. So CIA is to serve our interests and has the prince by the b*lls. CIA might even get their entire budget paid by this episode. Oil is under $50 a barrel now or $30+ lower
I am pretty sure Erdogan would not that outraged if the Saudis cut him a deal too.
The free press is one of the cornerstones of US national interest; allowing our journalists to be murdered because they said something about a foreign power is a threat to that.
This has nothing to do with press freedom whatsoever.
The free press isn't a cornerstone of national interest - it is a sometimes useful, but often inconvenient tool.
"A propaganda system will consistently portray people abused in enemy states as worthy victims, whereas those treated with equal or greater severity by its own government or clients will be unworthy"
No, also his prosecution of the war in Yemen.
> By skipping that step and jumping right to PR to help fuel moral indignation in Americans, the CIA is way way way out of bounds.
The US at its best stands up for a free press, and against, for example, authoritarian states being free to murder their critics worldwide.
> Quite likely most senior CIA officials have far more blood on their hands than MBS.
In the light of Saudi Arabia's actions in Yemen, this statement is clearly false.
Everyone who gets a chance? (-a few European countries who stopped recently.)
It doesn't excuse the fact that SA and MBS are also horrible.
On balance the US causes substantially more human suffering in the world than all other terror groups and despots combined.
It’s strange that character attacks on MBS work so well to make Americans assume that the US must be the good guy.
In the US there is a tremendous appeal to the narrative that the US is the (relative) good guy. American exceptionalism is a religion and it easily leverages the widespread white suoremecist views of Americans who already mistrust the brown folks.
So beware of reinforcing the American exceptionalism dogma when you cite “whataboutism”. It is often budled into that critique.
First, the CIA actions in Iraq make this almost certainly true. Yemen is a minor conflict in comparison. Even still, Saudi actions could not happen without the US. The blockade could not take place without US assistance, the bombs being dropped are from US manufacturing, and the raids dropping the bombs could not happen without US intelligence and air support.
The US murders journalists.
Huh? If anything the Snowden revelations showed that they'd been hoovering up even more than previously understood. Those revelations make it more credible that they were intercepting communications of ostensible US allies like the Saudis.
Personally I have no means to determine veracity and don't have a reason to believe anyone who says anything at this juncture. Here's what I do know: there is a lot of money and power at stake and a number of interested parties who would like to sway public opinion, in the US, KSA and internationally.
I believe Trump has had some run ins with the CIA, and them giving him a black eye politically could be a motive. Trump probably has to play nice with KSA, there isn't a practical economic way around that at the moment. MBS also has made a lot of enemies in KSA, many of whom no doubt have incredible means and connections. But really no way to tell what the truth might be. Not sure it matters for me personally other than a disgusted headshake at all involved parties.
The WSJ actually cares about this issue, and they want to stay on their good side as they're a huge help in their PR campaigns. Nothing they are releasing is really new, this release was already claimed by a Saudi aide, and their releases have happened at times where they'll easily be missed.
It should be known that Khashoggi's uncle made billions as a weapons broker and helped the CIA funnel guns to Osama Bin Laden when he was fighting for the CIA as the Mujahdeen.
My inner conspiracy theorist says that the CIA is pissed that Trump shut down their gun running operation in Syria and they want to keep the middle east in chaos forever because it's good for their budget
The fact this story has been covered so much by the media because of "freedom of the press" while they completely ignore China routinely disappearing journalists tells me there's an agenda being pushed. Nothing about this story seems organic
Were the Chinese journalists you mention also employed by a prominent American newspaper and residents of Virginia with influential friends? If not it seems very easy to see why this case has gotten more publicity.
>And why do we assume that their actions are in the national interest when it is not defined beyond platitudes about freedom.
Are you saying supporting SA is in our national interest? I don’t need the CIA to release info about SA for me not to support them. I’m not going to change my stance because of some possible CIA motive.
What we need is for the American public to rein in their military-industrial-pharmaceutical masters. But, they can't really do that, for as long as regimes such as Saudi Arabia have bought their country out from under them.
Not at all. But rather than focusing on something concrete (and falsifiable) like national interest, our leaders and officials moralize and stoke righteous indignation.
I’m not who you’re replying to, but yes it absolutely is. We don’t support SA because we secretly like mean people. We have a vested interest in keeping oil flowing.
Was interfering in the most recent political turmoils in Egypt in our national interest? When you look at how much oil moves through the Suez Canal, absolutely.
Stabilizing access to oil is in our own selfish national interest (we need oil) and in our global interest of stabilizing the world. When countries don’t have access to the natural resources they need, they tend to invade other countries to get them. We want to avoid that.
Considering the above, I really wish politicians in the US would frame clean energy as a national security issue. We are far less likely to be bumbling around in the Middle East if we don’t need their natural resources. Would we still sell hundreds of billions of dollars in arms to theocratic authoritarian nut jobs? Maybe. At the very least we should chip away at the reasons we have for doing so.
Yet everything the US does must be framed as some kind of sacrifice for some group’s freedoms, its women, children, etc.
I don’t know what would constitute a morally defensible national interest. That is not an easy question. But at least it is an honest question.
Honesty is not the goal however when there is a need to gain consent of the masses to do violence against the innocent whose lives are deemed worthless by our national interest.
This is "if you're not with us, you're against us". It was a bad argument then and it's a bad argument now. Can we try to keep such short sighted reasoning off of HN?
Officially supporting Saudi Arabia has been the US position since Nixon was president for the purposes of lowering oil prices and assisting Israel. Supporting Saudi Arabia is undeniably in the national interest if you ask the people in this country who have been amassing power since that time. National interest and human rights are separate priorities.
Change would be nice but don't hold your breath.
It may be the case that national interest sometimes requires making humanitarian trade-offs, and there is nothing wrong with using the consent mechanisms of democracy to find a path for US policy amid those trade offs.
But I am certain that creating a pretense that US actions are driven only by humanitarian concerns and framing the larger policy issues to the public as over-simplified good vs evil is extremely dishonest, and should not be funded by taxpayer dollars.
It seems that much as the tooth fairy is practice for religion, religion is practice for politics.
After doing this, they disposed of his body (which they still have not returned) and promptly lied dozens of times in a row about the circumstances of his disappearance and death. They originally pitched he had wandered out of the embassy. Then that he had disappeared unrelatedly. Then that he had died, but no one knows how. Then that it was after a fight in the embassy. Then eventually admitting that it was a targeted murder, but by rogue agents. At each step, they lied until their lies were publicly and definitively exposed, largely by the Turkish government who are understandably mad that a foreign government exploited the diplomatic easement given to embassies to murder someone on their soil.
In conversations following up on this affair, the position of the Saudi government has been simultaneously that Khashoggi was a dangerous anti-government subversive who no one should mourn because he deserved to be killed, that KSA should face no consequences and be the ones to determine what justice means, and that no one not being charged by the KSA could possibly be involved in the decision to do this.
We have two possibilities from this stage: Case 1: This was ordered by either the Crown Prince or someone near him; or Case 2: This was a wonderful act of serendipity that the Crown Prince thinks was a very good outcome, but which was independently pursued by Very Bad Men Who Will Be Executed, and surely they were acting alone.
How would we be able to tell between cases 1 and 2 (besides the fact that case 2 is completely implausible and is "Kid with Crumbs Around Mouth Claims Dog Broke In To Cookie Jar" nonsense)? Well, we'd know for sure that case 1 was true if for example we had access to the Crown Prince's private correspondence and it demonstrated that he was involved. It would be difficult to discern between the two without this. Okay, so we all agree that the next step in this investigation is someone who intercepted the Crown Prince's correspondence to confirm what it says.
Note that at this stage in my post, the United States and its intelligence community has not been mentioned and nothing said so far relies on its credibility. So, given this, would you care to make a case for Case 2? Would you care to hypothesize which institutions, globally, we might rely on to make Case 1?
The CIA and FBI suck and have agendas. Turkey sucks and has an agenda. KSA sucks and has an agenda. And yet we can do better than nihilism when it comes to adjudicating this situation.
I think it addresses only the evidence, not the motive for the campaign to spread the news about the intercepted data.
"The Long Struggle for Supremacy in the Muslim World" October 27, 2018 By Yaroslav Trofimov:
https://hiiraan.com/news4/2018/Oct/160847/the_long_struggle_...
Turks and Saudis have been enemies for centuries. The Khashoggi incident occurred in Turkey but on sovereign Saudi territory (an embassy). The Turks were watching _very_ carefully and apparently had eyes both outside and inside the embassy, an obvious violation of diplomatic protocol. The event has become an opportunity for the Turks to embarrass the Saudis and attempt recapture of the leadership of the Sunni Muslim world from the Saudis.
But things change, or some think that they changed. Even today, SA army is not even a close match for the Turks, but money talks when it comes to alliances. Personally--call me a bigot--but I think it will SA decades if not generations to have a true modern army, not based on tribal loyalties and BS.
Fun Fact: Muhammad Ali Pasha gained control of Egypt in the name of the Sultan as was customary. Wiped out the Mamelukes, after inviting their leaders to a diner (killed by Ali Pasha's soldiers.) https://www.historytoday.com/richard-cavendish/mamelukes-are... He became so powerful that the Sultan made agreements with him, he was almost no vassal and his family ruled Egypt until 1952.
Now the soldiers that made Ali Pasha that great were Albanian mountaineers, that fought not to embarrass themselves and for spoils. Totally undisciplined, uneducated, headstrong and they'd no orders from anyone else but their local area chief. They'd kill a superior for an offense and all soldiers would rally toward the "killer". Eventually they became a threat to Mohamed Ali Pasha's power so he sent them to fight the Wahhabi /Saudis in early 1800's. Two birds with a stone. Here's a typical Albanian mercenary in Egypt http://photobucket.com/gallery/user/Edli82/media/bWVkaWFJZDo... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Ali%27s_seizure_of_po...
He devised a plan under which staff is trained, tested, and punished for incompliance.
Once the whole of banks ~1200 people staff got certified, they set a deadline for enforcement after which anybody caught will be fired on spot.
The day after the deadline they spotted ~60 people in the bank sending plaintext, or replying to an unsigned email. And among them, one director level employee.
They had to fire them all, including a directress who went on trying to suing them for years.
Also, the KSA is basically a one-man dictatorship at this point. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the Saudi COMSEC guy is not giving MBS a stern talking-to every time he does impulsive 31-year-old dictator stuff like, for example, using unsecure messaging services to communicate with his goons while they're murdering a dissident overseas.
Whoever they hire, is likely to be in touch with foreign secret services before they do the job. The fact that they have a common fixer posting on forums to buy zero days is very amateurish and shows their sorry state. USA, Russia, China, UK etc all have homegrown expert with security clearances doing that stuff.
Maybe MBS is too dumb to use open source apps like Signal, who knows?
Google “nokia2mon”, the saudis are definitely not masters of tradecraft.
He was very active on a US based hacking forum for years, and everyone knew he worked for KSA.
Assumptions like these are dangerous.
Note - do not turn this into a "but her emails" discussion.
I would venture to say that a great number of leaders in the west, east, developed and developing countries could not describe how a computer works. Don’t bother asking them about encryption.
I think MBS very much expected to be found out, but likely assumed that it would not be such a public spectacle in US media with actual implementation details.
Trump played along with it as much as he could.
The bad thing is that bad actors control militaries.
Shouldn't the CIA know better how to protect its highly classified CIA assessments?
The days of G-men are over, it's a bunch of Ivy league clowns whose daddies couldn't get them a job on wall street.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18376089
https://newrepublic.com/article/113216/ryan-fogle-cia-spy-ar...
Of course in this case it's just the CIA trying to sway the public. Look up Operation Mockingbird and then remember that Anderson Cooper interned with the CIA
Nothing will happen. Just look at Kingdom of Saudi Barbaria and their use of petro dollars to lobby American politics and here are the results so far:
1. US-EU is willing to sanction Russia for the killing of an ex-Spy
2. US-EU is willing to sanction North Korea for the chemical assassination of Kim’s half brother
3. US-EU is willing to sanction Turkey for the jailing of a Christian Pastor.
4. US-EU is NOT willing to sanction Kingdom of Saudi Barbaria for the dismemberment and acid-dissolving of a US-based journalist.
The US has an obvious obvious obvious set of double standards for policy enforcement when it comes to our oh so sweet ally.
javascript:window.location="https://m.facebook.com/l.php?u="+encodeURIComponent(window.location.href);https://blendle.com/i/wsjcom/cia-intercepts-underpin-assessm...
No matter what, CIA must've revealed a method, like the Turks did when they claimed they had a video. But then, it's a Game of Thrones on a very important country so it may be worth it. Maybe we'll keep the oil cheaper for a few years ;)
I have no love for the Saudis, nor many of the other countries over there, though. I tend to view it as Game of Thrones material for a foreign state and I hate it, but figure that it's really none of our business.
While any extra judicial killings are a very bad direction IMO, most people would agree that democracy should protect journalists but not terrorists.
Tl;Dr - supposedly if we took the people who get drone strikes to court they would be found guilty in the states anyway, a journalist wouldn't be so there killing is considered unjustified
Also, luckily everyone in the world agrees who the terrorists are, so it's not a problem.
Furthermore, it's awesome that governments never use the terrorist label on people they just don't like.
Thought experiments:
Are the people that Kim Jong Un calls "terrorists" good guys or bad guys?
Are people that drop explosives remotely from miles away "terrorists" or "good guys?"
Why do we bother with trials in this country? Since those people would probably be found guilty, wouldn't it be better to just find them guilty from the offset? Especially when issuing lethal sentences!
This is not meant to be snarky, at least not a lot, just trying to show that things aren't this clear cut.
Why should everyone in the world have to agree who the terrorists are? This sort of relativism is corrosive and it's not a luxury terrorists and dictators indulge in. They're clear who the bad guys are, and it's us. That's what makes them our enemy, regardless of how they happen to percieve their own interests and the langugage they use to describe them.
I'd imagine some terrorists and dictators like beer and chocolate-covered pretzels as much as I do. If so, I agree with terrorists and dictators about that too.
But we do have a difference of opinions when it comes to deliberately blowing up children or building theocratic states, for example.
EDIT: I never imagined that this would be a controversial take...
FWIW I don't see anything controversial in your comment.