Hacker News Reader

Comment by paulsutter | Hacker News Reader

> in order to develop expert intuition (1) some regularity in the world that someone can pick up and learn (2) a lot of practice, and (3) you have to know almost immediately whether you got it right or got it wrong

> “So, chess players certainly have it. Married people certainly have it [about each other]. People who pick stocks in the stock market do not have it. Because, the stock market is not sufficiently regular to support developing that kind of expert intuition,” he explained

View on HN

> the stock market is not sufficiently regular

Stock markets are a lot more than just "not sufficiently regular"; they actively remove all regularity from themselves (that being the byproduct of how markets calibrate prices of things—regularity is the signal that makes people money, and so it gets exploited away.)

Or, to put that in more precise words: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h24JGbmweNpWZfBkM/markets-ar...

This I believe is also hammered on in Thinking fast and slow which is an excellent book.

It condenses the major findings on behavioral psychology from 21st century into an accessible paperback.

Adding this to my reading list, thanks!

After reading the article, this is a perfect summary.

The rest of the article adds very little

I think the book "Superforecasting" (if I understood it) wants to say that 3 isn't necessary, which is why I wasn't as into it as I was "Thinking, Fast and Slow"

> you have to know almost immediately whether you got it right or got it wrong

I have to imagine chess players are more certain as to whether they got a move wrong rather than whether they got it right?

I would imagine that it doesn't have to be instantaneous. A few minutes is probably fine, maybe longer in some circumstances.

These days, chess players get to find out after the game when they check the all knowing computer. Fifty years ago, even if you played at the highest and most scrutinized levels of chess, you might not find out your move was objectively a mistake for years.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com