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Comment by anothergoogler | Hacker News Reader

And to think, one year ago we had the fad of Bitcoin Christmas gifts. I know some intelligent people in tech who bought into BTC and ETH around then. Sub-$1k BTC by year's end is a real possibility.

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I think we again and again come to the conclusion - the world careless less about crypto.

The world cares about useful things, like the ability to wire money with low fees, or being able to buy a pizza. Very few care about holding onto an asset hoping that it will go up indefinitely... and it never does if it isn't needed for daily use by many others.

I think sub-1k btc is extremely unlikely. The history of BTC's growth and crashes is strikingly similar each time. It goes up 5-10x, then crashes to roughly 2x where it started, stays still for a while, and then repeats. I'd be willing to make a bet with you that it won't go under $2k by years end, if you'd like :)

How do you support the statement "It goes up 5-10x, then crashes to roughly 2x where it started, stays still for a while, and then repeats"? It was flat for a long time, it rapidly peaked at somewhere north of 19k, and has been on a fairly steady decline for most of the past year, with occasional price spikes.

If what you say was true, the price would be rising. Which it's not.

You seem to have chosen arbitrary time frames. You know that after 2013 it was stagnant for several years, right?

> then crashes to roughly 2x where it started,

I consider it to have started in the beginning of 2017, around $1k.

Fair enough, I was looking at a chart that apparently didn't go back that far. However, looking at another chart that goes back to mid 2010, I don't see it either.

Can you point me to a chart and time frame during which the behavior described was occurring? It looked like it did something sort of like that (but not at the magnitudes described) a couple of times in the runup to $19k in late 2017, and I see a big spike in late 2013, but I don't see any sort of real pattern of any type, other than the fairly consistent small price spike after a big drop that comes from people buying at bargain prices.

I can't find a great one...but if you go here:

https://99bitcoins.com/price-chart-history/

And click on 'all' and select 'logarithmic scale' (beneath the chart), you can see it fairly clearly.

If you make the bet in Bitcoin, losing is less damaging to you than winning is prosperous.

I'd be happy to make the bet in the currency of the grandparent's choosing. Crypto or otherwise.

This could be us!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/9zvoe2/the_...

Haha totally. I was thinking of that as I made that comment. Would be happy to put funds in escrow though, as long as whatever it is is not too annoying.

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