> Bitrot is rare. Over the average lifetime of most consumer desktops, the loss of any personal documents is very unlikely unless it makes up a majority of the disk. And if it does, it's most likely that it affects negligible parts of the file (ie, corruption in a frame of video).
> The risk of bitrot becomes interesting when you talk about long timeframes like a decade.
I think you are making a lot of assumptions here about frequency of bitrot, especially in the face of failing hardware. Also, consumer desktops are not the only use. There are bunch usages where the risk of bitrot is much more concerning. Or were you intending your original post to be only about consumer usage?
>Considering the capacity and price of a 2TB disk, compression isn't the immediate need of the consumer either, unless they have a NAS, where Syno and QNAP already provide integrated solutions with btrfs and ext4 both.
This kind of feels like you are saying that it isn't needed because it is already being used when it is needed. Am I misunderstanding? Consumers may want compression for smaller hard drives they already own in order to get more out of them. Also, compression can speed up disk IO in some workloads.
> The modern ext4 journaling is also very battle tested, it's a very simple and resilient physical journal, data loss in ext4 happens largely when the disk is already failing or has been cheap enough to lie about the state of data being written or not.
The issue with ext4 resilience isn't about quality of the implementation. It is a fundamental limitation of no COW filesystems. Since things are overwritten, if the system crashes mid write you can end up with partial data. COW filesystems always give you the old data or the new data. This can be worked around but that requires that all of your applications do this workaround.
> For the average consumer that sums up to "it doesn't matter enough". Something like bcachefs could change the game by being btrfs+ZFS but without the dataloss risk.
What makes you think bcachefs is going to be any better? A lot of functionality still has to be implemented. What makes you think that the implementation of this functionality will be any less error prone?
You also haven't addressed the large pile of new features provided by BTRFS/ZFS. Snapshotting alone can make it worth the price of admission for consumers. With snapshotting, you can set up a system where rollbacks after any upgrade can occur seamlessly.