Hacker News Reader

Comment by gavanwoolery | Hacker News Reader

I wrote this controversial tweet on the matter a while back (embedded here for convenience [1], controversial because it uses averages!) Which might make things seem more or less bleak depending on your perspective, but an important note from this data is that the 2017 median sales were about 2000 units per game (yikes).

[1] https://twitter.com/gavanw/status/967249172804943872

Average number of units sold per game on steam by year (note many games have long tails)

  2004 - 11.6m

  2005 - 569k

  2006 - 581k

  2007 - 833k

  2008 - 279k

  2009 - 322k

  2010 - 391k

  2011 - 512k

  2012 - 535k

  2013 - 601k

  2014 - 157k

  2015 - 111k

  2016 - 73k

  2017 - 49k

View on HN

You are looking at lifetime sales of games that have been on sale for different periods of time. All of these should be divided by number of years of sales, which gives you:

2017: 49k, 2016: 36k, 2015: 37k, 2014: 39k

2013: 120k, 2012: 89k, 2011: 73k, 2010: 48k

2009: 35k, 2008: 27k, 2007: 75k, 2006: 48k

2005: 43k, 2004: (this really just means Half-Life 2 and Counterstrike): 820k

With the sales normalized by year, and noting that 2004 did not actually allow third party games on sale, there is not an appreciable drop or trend across the entire time range.. I suspect the crazy spike in 2013 can be attributed entirely to Dota2 and 2012, Counterstrike Global Offensive causing mean skew.

Dividing by the number of years is wrong in the other direction: most games will sell far more copies in year 1 than year 10. Restricting each to first-year sales would be a much more realistic adjustment.

great point! would be interesting to see the average sales drop-off over time. Typically games have sales spikes during the early release and then later during sales, but it tends to drop off over time. "Classic" or "must play" games, however, like Portal, tend to sell pretty well over their entire life.

Isn't mean probably very, very skewed for this?

Median would be much more interesting.

median would definitely be better. As noted, median for 2017 was 2k units sold per game, but I lost the rest of that data. Regardless, average still carries some meaning. :)

These are damning stats for anyone interested in getting into indie game dev.

Whats the average numbers if only top 20% are taken. To basically reject newbies in 2017 and recent years.

Good question, I dont have the data on me anymore (I extrapolated it from Steamspy, and I don't subscribe to it anymore). To get a (potentially) more accurate picture, I would instead look at all games that sold more than X units. I think if a game sells about 20k units, its probably a more serious contender (not that some good games have not had extremely poor sales).

Problem with that is everyone thinks they are in the top 20%, by definition they likely aren't.

I think if you're spending 1+ year developing something, even if you start as a complete beginner, you're going to be in the 20% of games on Steam.

There is simply so much shovelware/copy and paste games.

Could someone explain what this trend even shows, other than making a cool looking curve? It seems to be a layer of abstraction over the graph in the blog (showing the indie explosion), but which adds nothing of value.

Graph in the blog is number of games released. My data is actual unit sales (approximated), which is important data as well. In other words, if more games were released on steam, but they were still as profitable per game, it would not be a huge issue. But the trend clearly shows the average sales per game going down. However, there is also a huge uptick in shovelware, so this could be a problem as well.

> But the trend clearly shows the average sales per game going down. However, there is also a huge uptick in shovelware, so this could be a problem as well.

doesn't this imply that shovelware is actually taking away some of the sales? In other words, making a large number of low-effort shovelware is a better money making scheme than making 1 (or few) mediumly good game?

Any idea what happened in between 2013-2014?

Steam Greenlight: first releases? Greenlight released in 2012 so I'm guessing many of its titles released about two years later.

Steam Greenlight, Kickstarter, much more interest in indie games via all the success stories (Minecraft, etc).

Indie Game: The Movie released in 2012, too.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com