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Comment by meric | Hacker News Reader

USA grew prosperously for the past 100 years on the back of consumer demand of a mere 200-300 million people. I still fail to see why China cannot do the same with a population of 1200 million.

Yes, there will probably be a recession or even a depression here and there, but in only a few decades time China will be much richer. The article is only a short term view, it doesn't address what China will become in 10, 20, 30 years time.

There is of course the one child policy that might negatively affect China's economy in the future. China's government is no democracy, and I don't see any reason why it wouldn't simply kill the law when it becomes advantageous to do so. After all, growth at any cost!

EDIT: Would like explanation of downvotes.

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Compare Canada's population to Indonesia's. Now compare their standards of living.

High population does not imply or cause high wealth.

Correct, I did not say that high population causes high wealth.

What is behind my reasoning is that the lower the standard of living, the more opportunity for economic growth. China's living standard is very low, compared to the US, therefore over the next few decades, because per capita it will still not be as wealthy as the US, it will continue to grow and become much richer than it currently is.

A quick google search reveals that this is indeed true for Canada and Indonesia. Indonesia GDP growth, ~2-3% per annum. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?Sy... Canada GDP growth, ~0-2% per annum. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?Sy...

Moreover, many say (including the author of the article), that because China's growth for the past 30 years has relied on exports and now that developed consumer countries like the US, Canada and Japan can no longer consume as much, China's growth opportunities become further restricted.

I do not believe this is the case and here is what I was really trying to say in my previous comment. China has 1200 million people and I believe that over the next few decades China will be able to grow, precisely because its consumer demand will grow, too. After all, US did it with only 200-300 million people, why can China not do it, too?

The fact that its government maybe inefficient is only a small effect on the scale of growth we are talking about. From wikipedia, China gdp per capita is ~6600 and US's is ~46000. Even if an inefficient government like China's reduces the potential productivity of the average citizen by three or four or even five times, China still has a lot of room to grow.

For more information, look at the Solow-Swan Model. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exogenous_growth_model

EDIT: The article talks about previous bubbles like Japan's. Yes, Japan was a bubble, but China isn't; At least not yet. I believe Japan's economic growth stalled because it's GDP per capital caught up with the most industrialised countries. This has not happened in China, yet, and when it does, my prediction will be fulfilled.

Converging economies leading to equality, all powered by the capitalist machine that is the global economy.

The main reason for your downvotes is that you are not waving the U.S. flag. Also, you go against the idea that only democracy can deliver prosperity.

Both things will earn you downvotes.

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