Another is the inflation caused by the tariffs reducing the profits of industries that compete for the same consumer dollars. If consumers are paying more for plastic goods, then they have less money to spend on discretionary purchases.
Production moving from China to the US puts strain an already tight labor market, which displaces incumbent industries. I.e., shoe manufactures move to the US to avoid tariffs, which makes labor too expensive for the cardboard industry, who moves to another region.
All of these effects cascade to related industries.
Also, the collective "we" can win even if a large number of us suffer as a result of these policies.
Trade is usually 'win win'. So when there's less trade, there's less 'winning' on both sides.
Imagine if Chia is the sole source of Silk, and the US is the sole source of Rubber.
If the US 'wins' a trade war with China by doing more damage to then, but there is less trade ... well then there is unmet/latent demand in the US for Silk and in China for Rubber that is not met, which is an economic loss.
That said - trade needs to be in fair terms or it doesn't work. If one side cheats, they can suck all of the 'win' out of the 'win win' for themselves.
Yeah, you live in a bubble. Outside of the bubble, the American working class has been eviscerated.
Different countries have different laws, and they all forbid importing some stuff. China is stricter than us, so it stands to reason that we'll produce more products forbidden in their country than the other way around.
We can certainly hurt China but that was never in question. Whether this scheme will be any good for the US is TBD.
China running out of things to tax, doesn’t mean America has actually gained anything. America was stronger, but that doesn’t create jobs.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2018/apr/11/...
This does not remove the real problems we have in the states regarding wealth distribution. But globally, things are pretty amazing compared to how they've been, even within a single lifetime.
What that means is a trade war is going to cause prices in the US to rise more than prices in China. Which means either the prices of what the US does export will go up or the USA's standard of living will go down.
In the short term a carefully crafted trade barrier can have positive effects. For example, if the government decides a country should have natural advantage in industry X, but establishing industry X is impossible because of foreign competition than a trade barrier is a reasonable option. In effect the rest of the population is subsidising the initial higher prices and poor quality from industry X until experience and effects of scale kick in.
The danger is a trade barrier can be damned hard to get rid of because inevitably doing so will kill jobs. So hard that killing them it usually requires some sort of crisis. That's what happened in both Australia and NZ a few decades ago, with one Australia treasurer famously saying "if we don't do something we will become a banana republic". The barriers came down, there was an enormous amount of pain (interest rates hitting 20%), and he got voted out. But the country hasn't had a recession since.
If Trump's little war disappears with Trump I doubt it will have much effect on anything. If I was a US citizen, the most worrying line in that article is some democrats support it, so they could stay.
A big part of the rationale with all of these little trade wars is to make China stand alone on the global stage, so that they are more easily negotiated with. A secondary effect is to eliminate "Made in $country" goods that are 90% manufactured in China and finished in e.g. Italy or Canada.
Don't try to find a logic when there clearly is none. Trade war with EU and Canada might be the most unhelpful thing Trump has done.
That's not how this works. A trade tariff dispute doesn't mean anything about the relationships in other matters unless they are brought up as part of the negotiations. Each country isn't a single person being directed by their feelings being hurt.
So we can certainly negotiate with Canada to get them to lift dairy tariffs or whatever and still count on them not to allow Russia to setup air force bases there.
Umm, sorry for being flippant, but are we reading the same news about US foreign policy last 18 months...? :-/
Not sure. I don't recall any news about the US going to war or halting trade with any of its previous allies. I don't remember reading anything about the five eyes agreements changing. Do you have other news sources?
The phrase being used is "ruining relationships". Maybe you have a different definition of "ruined" if you think Trump has ruined any relationships with allies.
Actually it’s an incredibly smart culturally sensitive move - it allows the Chinese to save face.
Instead of making it the West vs China the perception has been shifted to Trump trying to get fairer trade deals for the US even with close allies.
As such even the technocrats know the focus is only on China because they are the worst offender on trade.
It helps keep trade issues limited to trade.
I'm hoping the same. I don't think it's likely to happen, but it would be good long term. Short term though, it will be a bit of a shock to see the plastic toy that was $20 now be $100.