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Comment by icc97 | Hacker News Reader

The regular Model S fits 7 with kids. It must be a fairly major cash saving having an electric car when dealing with so many kids. Colleagues of mine were paying more than 100 euros in fuel a week for large SUVs.

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hmm, aside from the BS that the model s fits 7 people....

this whole concept of saving money on gas and buying a luxury car instead makes no sense.

100eu/week in fuel = 5200/yr

“normal” car = 20k

tesla model s = 80k

you could spend 100eu/week for 12 years and it would be cheaper to buy the fuel.

“nice” car = 35k

that’s gonna hit the break even in just 9 years. driving 100eu of fuel/week for 9 years is a pretty nuts amount of driving, still better to get the cheaper car

> hmm, aside from the BS that the model s fits 7 people....

With the rear-facing seats, it does. Although uncomfortably. You're better off with the Model X for that many.

> “normal” car = 20k

Yes, let's compare a value car with a luxury car. Brilliant. How much does a BMX X6 or a Mercedes AMG GLE cost?

Here's a hint: https://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/vehicles/model/class-GLE/mode...

After you subtract government incentives and fuel savings, the costs are identical. That's why Tesla actually sells cars.

Yep. If I get a Model X I will want to do long trips with the kids in it. Probably including to the south of France at some point. I can't imagine how travel sick they'd get in the Model S's rear sets, and don't want to :)

For us the X is really the only full electric option.

I kind of regret not getting a Model X, but also kind of not... We have two kids and a dog, and have to board the dog now that she's big. The Model S with the 4 of us though, works just fine for 2,400 mile each way trips.

The one thing I really worry about in the Model X is the maintenance of the falcon wing doors.

This is kind of true. However there are subsidies in the Netherlands for electric cars, and we pay 0 road tax for them too. That also contributes a lot.

My VW Sharan now costs almost EUR 2000/year in road tax. It also goes into the garage for semi-regular TDi engine issues (last time we had to have the ECR valve replaced which also incurred 5 hours of labour).

TCO of diesels these days is not pretty where I live.

TCO for diesels is never that good when talking about small cars. Usually people only consider the drop in fuel consumption and price per liter of fuel. Only then does it hit them that regular maintenance is more expensive, most common issues are more expensive to fix, insurance/tax could be higher depending on where you live. You have to drive a lot to make up those costs in fuel saving.

7 with kids if you get the jump seats installed. 2 + 3 + 2

Depreciation is the usually the largest factor in total cost of ownership. If you're not factoring that in, you're not doing it right.

Depreciation on the EV is pretty fierce, factoring that in doesn’t make the math any better.

not true for a Tesla. Look at the values for a used 2013 or 2014 Model S: between $38k and $45k, which is quite comparable to similar non-electric cars of the same price range. [1]

The first Leaf totally crashed in value, but that car is a POS (it's the Versa body and interior, which is absolute trash).

[1] https://www.truecar.com/used-cars-for-sale/listings/tesla/mo... (accessed Sept. 7, 2018)

Definitely they hold value stronger in the open market. At auction they do pretty bad (or did, at least, as of perhaps six months ago). Other EVs do worse. The 500E tends to go through auction at three years for about $4500, though it goes for almost twice that on the open market.

Once even more EV's are around longer could that depreciation retroactively improve if it turns out 5 or 7 year old batteries actually aren't as poor as expected? A gamble of course.

I cannot speak for everyone else, but the thing that keeps me from buying a super cheap EV from three years ago is mostly the abysmal range. A Leaf or a 500E from 2015 has 84 miles of range. I am expecting I may have a 28 mile [each way] commute starting in a few weeks. Technically doable if nothing goes wrong, but ... range anxiety would be real. I'll wait. Just three years later we ridicule any EV with less than 200 miles of range. Maybe these will hold value better? I wouldn't bank on it, and I would only consider a new EV as a lease vehicle at this time, but time will tell.

I have a Spark EV rated at 83 miles range. I commute a few times a month from Oakland CA to San Jose, 38 miles each way so I have only 7 miles margin. This is not a problem as unless it is very cold or windy or raining. In which case I try to combine the trip with shopping in a place that has charging stations.

Your 28 mile commute is easily doable with the cars you mention. I'd avoid the Fiat because Fiat, but used Leafs are pretty cheap. Or the Spark EV if you can find one. Look on plugshare.com to find charging locations so you know you have a back up plan, but don't let anxiety get in the way.

I leased our first Spark EV and had exactly zero problems an d zero maintenance except for wiper blades and a minor issue that was under warranty. When the lease ran out I purchased a second Spark EV because it handles 90% of our driving and I got a great deal, $10,600 total including incentives. Even if the resale is zero after 10 years it will be 3x cheaper to own than our Honda Fit.

Not until the advances in EV tech slow down. The difference between a 2012 EV and a 2022 EV is a lot bigger than between the equivalent ICE cars. Or take 2008 and 2018 if you want a comparison that can feel unfair but accurate.

And then you factor in the physical degradation of parts like the battery. An engine wears out at a far slower rate than a battery.

It will probably take a few decades for EVs to be everywhere, tech to advance slower (relative), and batteries to improve.

"Normal" car for $20K? Where? Part of what made the Model S attractive was looking at a Kia SUV that was well into $50K. The Kia Forte starts at $20K and it is a nice enough car, but it isn't really an alternative for someone looking at a Model S.

Compare the "nice car" with a Tesla Model 3 for a more reasonable comparison.

You seem undecided. You're asking about a $20.000 car and offering as further explanation the comparison between a $65.000-$135.000 sedan and a $50.000 SUV.

> it isn't really an alternative for someone looking at a Model S

Nothing in your comment is an alternative for the Model S. Did you ever consider something in the same category and price range?

P.S. A $20.000 car is a normal car. It's just a car. Not meant to carry handball team, not meant to do it at high speeds or useless acceleration, without driving itself around your driveway. Think of a VW Golf, a normal car.

I think we are both in agreement.

Maybe. But my objection was to the warped comparison and the fact that no conclusion can be drawn from it ($100.000 Model S vs. $50.000ish Kia SUV).

A bicycle? Where? What makes the BMW M5 attractive is seeing how much a fully loaded Bobcat weighs... :)

I wasn't looking at a $100K Model S. At the time they had a $65K Model S, after EV incentives.

Cars last longer than 12 years. If your baseline is a 20k car then keeping the X for longer than that or buying used is reasonable.

Really though the upside is more you have the performance of a high end car for lower lifetime operating costs not that it’s cheap.

Who will buy a Tesla with a 12-year old battery? Where will the battery/electrical motor tech be in 12 years?

Motors are not getting better very quickly because it’s old and very good tech.

In terms of battery tech, that’s going to fit in any form factor. Which means someone replacing a battery in a 10 year old electric car will be buying the same technology as a new car’s battery while expecting to get another 10 years from it. All for a steadily dropping price.

Remember, electric means no internal belts, spark plugs, regular oil changes, etc which offsets most if not all the cost of a new battery.

That's part of why I justified a Model S: my Audi was averaging about half the monthly loan cost of the Tesla in service. I mean, the service guys were really nice, but I'm glad to no longer be on a first-name basis with them.

Compared the Model S: I'm at 34K miles and just going in for the first service next week.

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