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Comment by izacus | Hacker News Reader

Where did you see large Tesla 3 quantities?

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

They sold more than 28,000 Model 3s in Q2. They're on track to deliver more than 50,000 in Q3. Will probably sell more 400,000 next year (assuming only a small improvement from the current run rate).

They'll probably exceed 80% of EV market share in the US for years to come. Legacy automakers haven't got any source of battery (the Chinese will keep their production for the Chinese market, or only sell them for high margin). We've yet to know how the traditional automakers plan to make EVs in volume (intention don't count anymore).

Panasonic, the company that actually runs Tesla's Gigafactory, has sufficient capacity to build out and manufacture car batteries for other carmakers should the demand ever arise.

And today's article is basically the announcement that...demand has arisen. Expect to see an announcement from Panasonic or one of the other major battery suppliers in the next few days about breaking ground on a new factory.

> And today's article is basically the announcement that...demand has arisen.

It has--but it's not clear the whether the demand is for EVs or for Teslas.

They have already sold a lot of Model 3s, and they have 16 months to sell a lot more of them. Personally I don't really care all that much about when they hit 5k/week, 6k/week, or whatever. Even if they stayed at 4k/week that is 240K cars over the next 16 months, plus however many S/X/Y models they sell in that time.

The counter argument is that the demand for the 3 will be exhausted at some point, which could well be true. But the availability of the cheaper short range Model 3 will spike demand before that happens.

EDIT: fixed broken math

Indeed, Tesla is supply constrained. The next three years of Fremont production are spoken for (reservations + demand not yet realized as a reservation).

Gotta get those production rates up to pay off bonds and amortize capex though.

Yes, Tesla's profitability is an entirely different discussion, and IMHO one that really isn't all that relevant to how it will compete with MB, VW, etc. over the next few years.

Profitability is relevant to how Tesla will do anything, including but not limited to competing with incumbent auto manufacturers, absent an infinite supply of undemanding capital.

More importantly, the legacy automakers are loosing far more money on the sales of their EV than Tesla. They can't expect to margin of their gas-guzzlers to subsidies their losses on EV for long.

>The next three years of Fremont production are spoken for

Are you sure? We did not have a reservation. We ordered a Model 3 LR AWD on July 25 and will be taking delivery by the end of September, per our delivery adviser.

I expect the >$35k model demand is drying up fast. Can Tesla run their business on 400k 35k Model 3s?

I'm really loving the simultaneous predictions that > $35k demand is drying up and complaints that the $35k car isn't shipping yet... because > $35k demand is too high.

They haven't started delivering outside US yet. Europe is planned mid 2019.

> the availability of the cheaper short range Model 3 will spike demand before that happens.

So Q1 2019. And Telsa is always on time with self declared timelines, so you know those cars will be rolling off the line by then.

>And Telsa is always on time with self declared timelines, so you know those cars will be rolling off the line by then.

Can you name one legacy automaker who reach their EV sales/production goals more accurately than Tesla over several years?

All production targets set in 2015 by Musk have been achieved/exceed so far: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTbQFdyizGQ

Q1 2019 is still at least six months before MB will have a viable competitor available to purchase. Probably more like 12 months before MB has it available in quantity. Too soon to say what availability will be for the Audi and Porsche competitors. But thanks for the snark.

Tesla has a history of shipping high-margin cars for as long as they can before shipping the base model. So no, no one should expect those cars to be rolling off the line by then.

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