Comment by briga | Hacker News Reader

Comment by briga | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

Society has been getting better, but at what cost? Human's have radically disrupted ever biosphere on Earth throughout the past 10,000 years and are almost certainly the prime driver of a current mass extinction of life on Earth. Our global society depends on healthy ecosystems, so where does it leave us when those ecosystems collapse? Every day human life might be getting better, but for how long? Can we sustain modern Western lifestyles for thousands of years? The Romans lived through hundreds of years in relative affluence where their civilization seemed unbreakable. Look at where that empire is today. 70 million years ago dinosaurs were the undisputed rulers of the planet, but where are the dinosaurs now? What's to say that ours is the civilization that lasts forever when all historical evidence is to the contrary?

The sequel Homo Deus isn't as good, and it felt like something that was written in a rush after Harari managed to break into the best-seller list.

The point of surviving is not to last forever; it is to last longer. Feeling slightly depressed that your civilization may undergo changes during the next hundred years or that your species may not be able to last until the end of time is a privilege of living in an abundant, technologically advanced society. To paraphrase Stein's law and one of its corollaries: Something that can't go on forever, won't, but it can go on for longer than you think.

The reason why everyone points to Western Rome as an example of fleeting success (forgetting that its eastern part survived for an additional millennium), is that it was the last empire to go out with a real boom. As a counter-example, you could point to the British empire, whose heritage is still alive and well: We are discussing using its language and it is still a part of the G7. The same goes for the Roman language, which is still one of the world's most spoken, just under another name (Spanish). And you probably have dinosaur descendants living in your city, in the form of birds. Things survive, and so will we.

Worrying about imminent ecological collapse is as old as the industrial revolution. Thomas Malthus postulated that agricultural yields would not be able to keep up with population growth. But here we are, more than two hundred years later, better equipped than ever to tackle the challenges ahead of us. I am certain that we will make it out alive, as long as we keep up our good work.

We are in massive unpayable (with todays technologies) debt to the biosphere. The difference between Rome and now was Romes fall was due to being superseded by other humans. We are in a totally different time now. Western hegemony failing will not be replaced by Chinese or whatever. Humans will die off is unprecedented numbers, along with most other species. This time it won't be humans replacing other humans unless we achieve some pretty remarkable technological breakthroughs in the coming decade. You talk about 100 years in the future but I think you'll be in for a shock when you see the climate change in the next 10 years even.

Where did you get these claims from?

https://climate.nasa.gov/

http://www.ipcc.ch/

I don't see the prediction of humanity's immediate extinction on the front pages of these organizations. From what I have gathered, their perspective, like mine, is that these challenges are substantial, but surmountable. And we can all contribute.

As I see it, the best thing anyone can do right now is to convince their friends and relatives that nuclear energy is safe and necessary; that will buy us a lot of time.

I agree on nuclear. But, you will not see a government agency predicting imminent doom. They’re constrained by politicians not to do so. The individual scientists, however, are more grim.

I can’t find it, but I read an article of some of the top climate researchers in Australia basically planning to abandon the country for themselves and their children.

Just the other day, there was an article here where the world’s leading coral expert was saying unequivocally that almost all the world’s coral will die within our lifetime (it sounds like he expected more like 10-20, though he wasn’t specific). He noted that 25-33% of ALL ocean species have part of their lifecycle in this coral.

Article: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17842553

Unless we reverse this (sucking carbon from air using nuclear or solar power?), we emphatically do not have 200-300 years.

We're past the tipping point to run away warming according to some reputable climate scientists. Im not saying we can't reverse it but we're not even attempting to at the moment beyond half hearted deals like the Paris climate accord.

And the US is not even complying to the half hearted agreement

These challenges are technically surmounted but politically insurmountable.

Which means that you may have the cure, but no one will be able to afford it.

The western style/modern life is not compatible with the planet, and our economy depends on massive growth being realized - if only to service our debts and loans.

Our biosphere is dying under the weight of just the past few years, with only a small fraction of the world enjoying a first world living standard.

Someone has to tell everyone that the party is over, and that they wont be getting that better life after all.

A lot of British people would disagree that the heritage of the British Empire is alive and well.

And there's not just "worry" about imminent anthropogenic ecological collapse, but growing empirical evidence for it - something that has never happened before.

And the brits would be wrong, for the reasons I have already mentioned. The remains of their empire are more visible than that of any other.

Again, I do not claim that there are no ecological problems. I just think that they are solvable if we put our minds to it, because they have always proven to be so before. I may be wrong, but I don't see any better plan of action than being a rational, action-taking optimist. :-)

Reply on news.ycombinator.com