Comment by tonysdg | Hacker News Reader

Comment by tonysdg | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

Honestly, is there actually any chance of there _not_ being an environmental disaster by the end of the 21st century? I'm not saying we shouldn't keep trying, but the political willpower just doesn't exist. Significant portions of the worlds' population either:

- Depend on CO2-emitting technologies for their daily sustenance and/or existence

- Flat-out deny that humanity is exacerbating climate change

- Are completely apathetic to the issue since it doesn't affect their lives (at this time)

IMHO, there's an argument to be made that researchers are better off coming up with "band-aids" that can be applied in 50-60 years when first-world countries finally run out of ways to ignore the problem (i.e., when Wall Street floods, French vineyards stop producing, Saudi oil wells spontaneously combust, and sunbathing for more than 5 minutes, even with SPF 50 applied, results in 2nd degree burns).

Don't depend on political willpower. If it happens it will happen because traditional carbon-intensive energy sources will become unprofitable because of renewables getting cheaper.

And when any of that nasty stuff happens, first-world countries will be a drop in the bucket in the world's energy consumption structure and whatever they do or not do, will no longer matter. Basically this is why climate change efforts don't work so much now: OK you can implement these unprofitable measures, it will only result in your industry reducing due to incompetitiveness and third world countries displacing it - using whole lot less efficient, dirty, carbon-intensive technologies - making things worse.

So, just wait for renewables to actually become cheaper with no subsidies and drive carbon-based energy out of business. Which is likely to happen, especially as the main missing link - batteries - are making huge progress in cost in the recent couple years, finally. World energy landscape will look totally different if they get 3x cheaper than now, and that is more than likely. If it doesn't ever happens there is nothing we can do and we'll just have to learn to live with the climate damaged to whatever point it happens.

Technologically, the answers are out there, waiting for someone with cajones to lay down the law. The longer it takes, the fewer the options and the more unpleasant the unavoidable responses become.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com