The guy at my hardware store who sold dozens of new paver driveways last year said that business has practically shut down this year. Housing is definitely affecting consumer spending.
The Dow always sets records before going into a recession.
The Dow always sets records before going into a recession.
I do see some worrying signs - real estate for suburban Boston really is a bloodbath for sellers, the numbers on consumer debt remind me a lot of 1929, and some local restaurants seem to have reduced business lately. But if I had to make a call, I'd guess that we're midcycle now, at the beginning of a large boom.
If I had some significant assets I would be starting a company in Europe so I can afford to rebuy America once it is dirt cheap.