Trend expert says probability of a recession this year is 17%

paul.kedrosky.com

5 points·pg··8 comments

The guy at my hardware store who sold dozens of new paver driveways last year said that business has practically shut down this year. Housing is definitely affecting consumer spending.

The Dow always sets records before going into a recession.

'Course, the Dow also sets records roughly half the time that the U.S. is not in a recession.

I do see some worrying signs - real estate for suburban Boston really is a bloodbath for sellers, the numbers on consumer debt remind me a lot of 1929, and some local restaurants seem to have reduced business lately. But if I had to make a call, I'd guess that we're midcycle now, at the beginning of a large boom.

But how long do we have until the dollar falls through the floor?

If I had some significant assets I would be starting a company in Europe so I can afford to rebuy America once it is dirt cheap.

It already has. My guess is that the dollar will rise.

Why?

...which is probably only a little higher than the average year.

How do recessions affect the market for startups?

The same way a boom affects the market for startups. But in the opposite direction.

Seriously though: In a direct sense, the effects might not be too great for us "Web 2.0" startups (people don't cut back on YouTube when money is tight). But there would be less money going around, so at least indirectly it's going to be a degree tougher to run any kind of business.

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