Hacker News Reader

Comment by joefranklinsrs | Hacker News Reader

Just this morning Japan overtook China as the number two stock market in the world. Also, with the US interest rate going up and trade wars, money is flowing out of emerging markets back to stable economies. In this case, the Japanese savings that left Japan 25 years ago can start to come back to Japan. That capital inflow might start to help Japan with some inflationary pressure. Especially if Japan’s plan to allow 500,000 foreign workers this year. Japan has also been importing foreign workers for years now.

We talk about Japan as if it’s dying sometimes, but when you visit Japan, it is amazing how high of quality they all live in. Great food of all cuisine, clean streets, easy transportation, high tech buildings, friendly population, and most recently, cheap food and lodgings.

View on HN

All it took was quantitative easing since 2001 resulting in ownership of 40-50% of the entire japanese bond market (which isn't really a market any more because some days 0 transactions take place due to the complete hijacking of the BOJ & a guaranteed 0% yield) & 5-10% ownership of the entire japanese stock market.

The BOJ is a top holder of many largest Japanese corporations shares outstanding which is kind of weird because the BOJ doesn't really have any money they just "create" it. Color me bearish if that kind of monetary extremism can't even get the Nikkei 225 near prior all time highs or any meaningful inflation. I guess they could buy every bond in existence both public & private plus take the stock holdings up to 30% of the entire float.. maybe that's what is needed? It kind of seems weird to trust any of the statistics on inflation, rates, economic prospects for the country with such an active price insensitive manipulator in the market place every day.

Well, you could say the same about China, where the Chinese government is a major stakeholder, directly or indirectly of all the state enterprises and some of the biggest individual companies. Alot of the purchases of foreign companies and technologies is done by the Chinese government. Also, China engaged in huge QE from 2008 to today, resulting in massive debt taking.

At least the financial numbers coming out of Japan is reliable and transparent. Also, alot of soverign funds around the world considers Japanese Yen and Bonds one of the safest investments.

We agree China is more toxic & japans central banking interventions are indeed transparent. Hell the economists in charge of the policy even seem proud of the strategy & convicted in its outcome even though they've been wrong since you were probably in junior high.

Even today they still claim the policy is driving inflation toward some goal seeked objective. It isn't but that doesn't hold them back from saying it & keeping a forever bid in the market place.

As for "safest" investments well.. ya. You get 0% & sometimes less than that & sometimes a few basis points more so if the yield to maturity is an indication of risk then sure its riskless. The trade is your capital is lent to a sovereign for ~0% for 10 years with guaranteed inflation decay (cost of carry) & it's possible a default could occur. The only way a default won't occur is by creating more bonds & currency to finance the old debt when a tiny yield is present. Pass, at least with my money. If I need a place to park other peoples money where I earn a maintenance fee (pensions, endowments, etc) doing so regardless of performance then OK I'll do that. That's a fine incentive structure as a fiduciary but structurally it's a guaranteed no upside & 100% downside no matter how unlikely the downside. I like my money too much for that.

I don't like the heavy handed interventions in any country but Japan is without a doubt the most reckless & crazy of them all. They've been doing it the longest & in the last 10 years went from bat shit crazy to mach 3 with hair on fire. It may feel quite common to you but I assure you central banks creating money to buy gov't debt to finance interest on previously issued debt hasn't always been so common. It's not a sign of strength.

> since you were probably in junior high.

It's been a looooong time since I was in Junior High haha

> I don't like the heavy handed interventions in any country but Japan is without a doubt the most reckless & crazy of them all.

No doubt, Japan started the QE. Then US. Then EU. Then China. Dollar is the hegemony, so US is safe. China is in a very dangerous position and will likely fail. EU has similar economic size as US, and is aligned with US, so it should be safe. Jury is still out on Japan. We will be able to tell when deflation takes over the world economy.

I think there is a large audience of people taking your prognostications with a grain of salt because we are in an environment where we've heard it all before.

Only difference is that lately we've been also hearing that the EU will fail. Their failure has been only 2 or 3 years away for the past 10 to 15 years or so. As for China, ever since I was at the University of Wisconsin watching Bush the Greater lose his election to Bill Clinton, China's failure has been "imminent". Five years away, a decade at most.

Every year.

For the past 30 years.

I realize that even broken watches are right twice a day, but even that would be just a matter of luck or happenstance at this point. It wouldn't be because the doomsayers like yourself were correct about the EU or China. Or even the bullish people like yourself being right about Japan or the US. Or even the people with the opposing opinions being right. I've lived long enough now to know that if you guys get something right it's likely all down to simple happenstance.

I see my comment about China touched a nerve :) there's no need to downvote me, this is just based on my personal observation, which is too long to be typed up, so I merely summarized it here.

I'm not sure if anyone who knows what they're talking thought China was going to fail in 1990. I think most of the world at that time was concentrating on Japan, Russia, and US. China was too small of a player to be noticed by anyone prominent.

In any case, my observation is based on numbers and trends. Ebbs and flows for a country, government and culture. Debts and growth. Demographics, core strengths, and relationships. I stand by my observation: China will most likely fail.

Can you give more details on why you think China's debt is a problem? I've been hearing about it for several years, but as far as I can tell from the numbers, it is about the same level as Japan (Japan's debt is 253% of GDP, China's is 260% of GDP), and Japan doesn't even look like it is beginning to fail. And China appears to be actively taking steps to curtail the debt.

Sure, keep an eye on shadow debt (10T - 20T), not included in official figures. It is what is crushing the small enterprises, builders, and manufacturers in China right now.

Are you shorting the Chinese market, if not why should we take you seriously?

This always comes up in these threads. There are very good reasons not to short things, even if you think they are a house of cards. It's a strongly negative EV trade, on average, share borrowing costs will eat you alive if your timing is off, limited upside+unlimited downside, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", etc. Most people should not try to time the market. That doesn't mean their opinions are invalid.

> That doesn't mean their opinions are invalid.

Well if you are not confident with you own analysis why preach it to others then. If you are going give excuses that the markets are irrational then you should not give opinions about things you are not confident about.

He said xyz would fail, he didn't say they would fail imminently.

You can very rationally simultaneously believe you're right about the future and not want to make a bet on it in the market - you need to not only be right, but right at very close to the right time, unless you're going long.

The bar for sharing your opinions is not "willing to bet on them in the market".

> He said xyz would fail, he didn't say they would fail imminently.

What does that even mean, in the end with a long period of time all companies would fail. If he claims he can look at the data he should be able to predict the imminence if not he is just using weasel words.

> The bar for sharing your opinions is not "willing to bet on them in the market".

The bar for taking opinions seriously about gloom and doom prediction is.

Dropping in to give an alternate interpretation.

When, many layer up joefranklinsrs said that china would fail I think he likely meant that china today would fail in a number of years.

That is, it would have to change in some meaningful way to keep succeeding and so in term or reliable investment is not a good option whether it fail or not.

> he likely meant that china today would fail in a number of years.

How many years?

who knows, that is irrelevant in some sense. more than the number of years the focus should be on the causes and the problems causing it to fail.

when china will fail likely all that predicted it would have guessed by mere luck. But they might have spotted the right problems.

If I had to take a very wild guess the only ways china could fail would be success from external attack or side problems with their ability to handle the usual problems.

Also when somebody says X will fail in Y years they might mean "im working so that it will happens"

> who knows, that is irrelevant in some sense.

Exactly, that is why you should not waste your time reading such gloom and doom predictions unless that person is confident enough to put money on the line.

the prediction is often useless, the predicted causes can be intersting (quite often they are just memetic parroting of other still...)

I can't remember my voting, been pretty active today, and the last few actually, but did I downvote you?

I normally don't do that if a comment is worth responding to.

If you got a downvote, it wasn't from me.

EDIT: just checked. Downvote was mine. Sorry for this comment claiming I didn't.

Still, your prognostications are all just as much hogwash as everyone else'. Whether you guys are right, or wrong, is all a matter of luck. It truly is whether you want to believe that or not.

> "If you got a downvote, it wasn't from me."

> "EDIT: just checked. Downvote was mine. Sorry for this comment claiming I didn't."

XD (slightly funny to read those sequentially)

nice chat. if this is indeed the beginning of a global tightening regime (i doubt it) it will be a fun time as an active participant as long as one has an open mind.

i'm ultra excited for the opportunity in front of us & my view has been that the dollar is the most undesired asset class over the last few years & continues to be. no surprise its been outperforming for a while :)

take care.

I really wish I could hear you two guys continue the chat. It was incredibly interesting.

Stay safe :)

It's hard not to see Japanese bonds as safe when they yield pretty much 0%.

Reading your comment, comes to mind that the case of Japan demonstrate that bond markets are not so essential after all and that "creation" of money doesn't necessarily generate inflation.

> We talk about Japan as if it’s dying sometimes

I find this is mostly because the West can't fathom that Japan might have different values -- for example their unwillingness to sacrifice cultural homogeniety on the altar of economic growth.

Actually growing up in America we were taught that America is literally the most advanced and developed nation. And having visited Mainland China a few times helped cement that belief that the rest of the world was underdeveloped... until I actually visited Japan and some other Asian places like Hong Kong. Japan is probably miles ahead of the US objectively in infrastructure (social and physical), standard of living, and societal harmony. It's sometimes hard to observe and appreciate because Western values differ from Japan in certain key areas that make it look like they are behind (overemphasis on toilet hygiene seems weird to Americans, but is really just an advanced standard of hygiene—the romans would have thought us weird using clean toilet paper instead of a communal vinegar-soaked sponge).

You can't really fully absorb their advancement unless you understand their culture and why certain things are the way they are.

For me, visiting mainland China cemented my belief that the rest of the world was underdeveloped, but not for the same reasons as you. China is just going way beyond the rest of the world with their development, and outside of tiny slices of a couple major metropolitan areas in America, the US feels like it's decades behind. China's a little grimy, but the progress and infrastructure growth there is unbelievable.

And toilet hygiene here in Japan is one thing that ironically lags behind America. Sure, Japan has electric toilets and people wear separate shoes to the bathroom, but I've almost never seen locals wash their hands. What I typically see is guys tap their fingertips (and I do mean just around the nail area) in water and use it to help slick their hair back after a long session in the toilet. I've even seen restaurant staff do this and it drives me crazy.

I visited China a bit earlier than you, in the late 90s and through the 2000s. You have to realize merely in the 90s pretty much all of the skyscrapera in Shanghai’s bund sprang up.

http://www.blameitonthevoices.com/2010/06/shanghai-20-years-...

I agree that certain parts of China have succeeded US standarss (mainly certain districts of large cities) but if you venture around their levels of development are completely uneven and there are still large swaths of China wih poor infrastructure. Tap water is still not drinkable.

Re: washing hands in Japan. I’ve never observed that but maybe because they don’t have to stick their hands in their butt after using the toilet it has developed a cultural de-emphasis on hand washing? Regardless the food safety there is miles ahead of the US since you can actually eat meats raw there, including Chicken. In any case this is a perfect example of a cultural difference that masks their advancement. I don't think you can take a difference in hand washing practice and conclude that it's necessarily behind in some way. Same as how you can't conclude that their driving practices are backwards simply because they haven't advanced to the right side of the road.

You come from the US, visit china, and for some reason you think that is enough to solidify your belief?

Yes, and that’s the default for most people is to draw from their limited experiences. Most people don’t assume they are wrong until proven wrong, and even then some people power through.

>or example their unwillingness to sacrifice cultural homogeniety on the altar of economic growth.

Every time I hear this argument (and it comes up in just about every thread about Japan's economy or culture) I can't help but hear an alt-right dog whistle.

Because, of course, Japan has a long history of incorporating culture from elsewhere - both from their Asian neighbors and the West, but when you talk about "homogeneity" in relation to Japan, people tend to think first about ethnicity and race, since they're ~98% ethnically Japanese.

And I'm not entirely certain can I see the link between "cultural homogeneity" and "economic growth" ... until I realize you're talking about immigration. Which is odd because most immigrants to Japan are Asian, and not likely to disturb their "cultural homogeneity" much, and the tiny, tiny fraction from elsewhere are definitely not likely to do so.

Maybe that's just me and my cooling fan is acting up, though.

I think you hearing an alt-right dog whistle is exactly the Western-centric attitude I was referring to.

> Which is odd because most immigrants to Japan are Asian, and not likely to disturb their "cultural homogeneity" much

If you think there's no racial tension between native Japanese and Korean/Chinese immigrants I have some news for you.

> I think you hearing an alt-right dog whistle is exactly the Western-centric attitude I was referring to.

That's because the alt-right uses Japan as a proxy for its own anti-immigration and racialist views, particularly in regards to to Muslim and Eastern European immigrants. It seems to me to be a new form of Orientalism.

>If you think there's no racial tension between native Japanese and Korean/Chinese immigrants I have some news for you.

There definitely is, but that depends on one's definition of "race."

But that tension has existed for hundreds if not thousands of years (obvious post-WW2 sentiments notwithstanding) so I don't see that contributing to the disruption of Japanese culture since it's been a constant in Japanese culture for so long.

> There definitely is, but that depends on one's definition of "race."

Oh Japanese definitely think they are apart from their neighbors even in terms of race. YOu should read what Japanese write about themselves in History books.

Looks like you got downvoted a bit, but I heard the same dog-whistle reading this comment. ng12's comment history seems relatively reasonable, but some definite strong opinions leading in that direction - particularly around gamergate, and suggesting its fine to teach a dog to give a Nazi salute, etc.

Speaking of Japan's capital, this made me excited that someone might finally do something toward investing in US infrastructure (the headline was slightly walked back later, saying there were no concrete plans just yet):

"Japan weighs sovereign wealth fund for U.S infrastructure investment"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-japan/japan-wei...

If the US were smart about it, it would offer to go an easy route in resolving any trade issues with Japan. Part of the deal would be Japan working with the US to put together a $250 billion fund over time specifically to do high speed rail across the US. The Japanese are arguably the masters at that, their companies would benefit (and they'd earn a return on their deployed capital), and US would get some employment and know-how out of it (and obviously the transport system). Japan can borrow at great scale domestically at among the lowest rates of any nation. A big win all around.

That great quality of life comes largely from a monoculture focused on group harmony and letting those who don't jive with the culture falling through the cracks. Maybe a bit controversial, but I don't think mass importing foreigners who won't mix with the culture will be good for the country in the long term.

The U.K and Germany are full of internal strife entirely through their unchecked mass importation of foreigners and refugees. It needs to be done in a controlled manner allowing the foreigners to integrate with the culture, bringing amount small changes over time rather than drastic cultural changes quickly.

The foreigners and tourists are always the most obnoxious and least friendly people I interact with while in Japan.

> friendly population

Is that really the case if you're not from Japan? I have read and heard a number of horror stories over the years [1]

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/31/japan-racism-s...

The way this was explained to me, and this is fourth-hand knowledge by now, is: In japan, foreigners are treated like cute puppies. Mostly everyone wants to play with you, and people don’t mind you in their everyday lifes.

If you learn to speak japanese, you become a dog that can talk. Even cuter! People who know this talking dog for some time might start to accept that it has human-like intelligence, and actually treat you as a fellow human being.

However, as soon as you meet new people, you’re moved back to square dog.

In a Japanese class, we had an English teacher for Japan explain his role. He defined himself as somewhere between the town freak and a clown. People expect you to make errors, and will only find them funny, never offensive.

This is purely anecdotal of course, but I have never had anything but the friendliest and warmest encounters in Japan while I lived there on and off for a few years. None of the gaijins (foreigners) I met had any issues neither. They are almost too friendly to a fault. Of course after you get to know them, they drop some of the cultural barriers, especially Kansai (western Japan) folks.

I highly recommend anyone who haven’t been to Japan to go now :). Beautiful landscape and architecture, smart and cultured folks, and of course, sushi!!!

The only downside: losing your appetite for sushi outside of Japan :(

Racism in Japan is nowhere comparable to racism in China.

Could you elaborate?

Chinese propaganda today still infuses its citizens with a sense that Han Chinese is superior to other ethnic groups and races. You wouldn't possibly find anything remotely like that in any other Asian countries. If you think I'm exaggerating, here's a piece of NYT news that demonstrates their outright racism toward African people: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/world/asia/china-africa-b...

I'm not saying all of them are. In Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen where there are more young people who either accepted Western influences or got their college education in the West, racism may be less a problem. But those cities only represent less than 5% of China.

It goes deeper than that-- The physical territory, the ruling government, and the Han ethnic group (including "overseas Chinese") are considered equivalent. Kind of like a giant family where blood relations are mixed up with authority, history etc.

So, Han people are a political tool to use in colonization ("Hanification" currently going on in Tibet and Xinjiang) and also an asset to be maintained through what westerners might call eugenics.

It's more deliberate than "racism," more like "American exceptionalism." It's interesting idea, but it seems scary to westerners and it feels a little bit oppressive to be an Overseas Chinese

This is so hypocritical when the West does the exact same thing.

In fact it's not hypocritical at all. Not even the least.

The parent isn't denying the mistakes or terrible things the West has done in the past.

Allow me to give you an example of why this isn't hypocritical in concept.

If I'm an obese person, it is not hypocritical to lambast other obese people for the health consequences of their physical condition - so long as I'm not denying the application of those same health consequences to my own obesity situation.

The parent comment would be hypocritical if it pretended / claimed there is no racism in Western culture, while pointing out Chinese racism or beliefs about racial superiority. (assuming the parent is part of Western culture of course)

Sure.

Two years ago, I talked to an American who is ethnically Korean and lives in Japan. I asked him if Japanese were still prejudiced against Koreans. He said that he would have said "no" in the past, but now he thinks that they're prejudiced against Korean culture, and he escaped because he was culturally American.

Just one data point...

So I lived there for 5+ years, and my wife is Korea who lived in Japan.

There is a very large and real anti-korean sentiment/prejudice in Japan.

I mean a few years ago now, but there was a bunch of anti-korean protests in shin okubo. https://japantoday.com/category/features/kuchikomi/nasty-nat...

And there's the whole 'Zainichi' thing, who are still systematically oppressed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koreans_in_Japan

Hm interesting because Korean pop culture is popular among Japanese teens just as it has become popular in the US, but again, another one data point.

Black culture is popular in the US, but racism against black people is still systemic and prevalent.

Culture and sociology are often more complex than anecdotes would suggest.

From what I understand, Japanese culture isn't particularly hostile to foreigners. It's just impossible to become Japanese without being born into the culture.

I call BS on that. One of my friends said the only place in all of Asia where he was ignored/silently shunned/could not get help was in Japan. Yes, the Japanese will not say it to your face, but they have no need for you.

I call BS on that :) I suffered a heat stroke in Yokohama a while back and many young people and even elderly came to my and took me to nearby hospital, where I got treatment for $10!

Elsewhere in Asia, if you get hit by a car in China, nobody will stop and help you in fear of being involved and sued. This has been mentioned in western media countless times.

Well, of course, the devil may lay in the details. Anecdotes follow...

My wife had a medical emergency in Tokyo on New Years day 2018. We learned the hard way that if it's not __direly life threatening in that exact moment__ that you __will not__ be given care. You'll be told to come back on the 3rd when services re-open. We got __very__ lucky and she was able to be seen as the literal last patient at an urgent care that we got in to contact with through the concierge at a previous hotel we had stayed at (a very expensive hotel we stayed at for a few nights but were not current guests with).

The __extremely__ distraught looking Australian man with a Japanese girl alongside him, looking for the morning after pill? They were turned away. A Japanese man who had been __hit by a taxi and could barely walk__ was turned away. We saw a few other cases turned away that day and I genuinely felt bad that these people could not, or would not, be seen but that my wife would. It was eye opening, to say the least.

We rounded out our trip in Roppongi and talked to some expats who said that was the standard fare. Get hurt on or around major holidays and you'll be fending for yourself, that was the signal.

New Year is really the only special time where everything's closed in japan though..

Japanese are nice people, they just tend to avoid conflict.

Look into the bystander effect this might have been the issue your friend was facing. This happens everywhere.

Sounds pretty par for the course. 1/3 to 2/5 of respondents but only 4.5k out of 18k responded.

So assuming the non-respondents were predisposed to be generally positive (otherwise why didn't they reply) if you divide the numbers by 2 (conservative figure)then you have 15-20% of the foreign population with negative experiences.

I'd say that's probably better than I'd have expected.

I would say yes on the whole. There are racist or mean people in every country

> high tech buildings

You forgot to mention fax machines :) And useless pepper robots in about every shop that tries to look futuristic.

Pepper is indeed pathetic. Aldebaran Robotics must be laughing post acquisition.

Cheap food and lodging is mainly a sign of a strong US dollar though. I've been to Japan 5 years ago and while it wasn't as expensive as people told me it would be the Canadian dollar was very strong.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com