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Comment by nasredin | Hacker News Reader

Thought experiment. Would S. be supportive of Russia and Putin in 2018?

I would say yes. Most Russians want to see Russia succeed. For historical reasons a strongman or strongwoman have been necessary to keep the country together.

Many/most Russians would make that bargain, those that would not, have left. Some of those who left would still have Russia ruled by a semi-dictator than see it fall apart at the hands of a caring but ineffective leader.

Of course the real alternative would be a strong government with rule of law where the personal proclivities of the guy in charge doesn't dictate the entire character of the state. It can be easier to survive a weak leader when you're not a one-person autocracy.

The collapse of the Soviet Union is normal if you think of Russia as the world's last empire. For one reason or another, all the other empires have decided that it's more profitable for them to dominate by trading instead of conquering. Russia, on the other hand, can't do that so it still clings to the old ways of controlling its territories and neighbors.

As soon as they give that policy up, the empire will resume its disintegration. Most Russians believe it's a bad thing, hence their acquiescence of the neo-fascist regime that's gradually establishing itself in the country.

Yes,"the wild 90s" vs Putin's Russia ("stability") is often brought up by people for AND against Putin.

WRT to Putin's popularity, Kasparov said ~"if there's one restaurant in town, is it popular?"

The problem is that "a strong government with rule of law" wasn't a realistic alternative; it might be desirable but even looking back there doesn't seem that there was a reliable way for Russia to get there even if certain groups chose to do so; the balance of power between various major influences who have goals incompatible with this scenario just wouldn't let it come true.

I expect you are right, that Russia was not in a fit state after the fall of Communism to create such a state. But it is too bad, considering that several smaller ex-Soviet states were able to, one way and another, form functioning governments that aren't one-man states. Heck, even one-party states seem to do a bit better- they occasionally change leadership, implement reforms, and even implement some sort of simulacrum of politics, even if it's all internal party jostling.

>Many/most Russians would make that bargain

At the very least I think we can say that many HAVE made that bargain. They know.

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