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Comment by pjc50 | Hacker News Reader

There's no sign of anyone else leaving yet. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-support-increases-in-euro...

If any other country was going to do it, it might have been Greece during the financial crisis, but ultimately the same pressures apply: no country can pull up the drawbridge. Dependency on trade, investment, and migration of skilled staff is the backbone of a modern society. And leaving the EU does not make Europe go away, it just removes that country from the decision-making process.

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The only thing, I think, that might change this, would be if the UK against all odds manages to make Brexit successful. I personally don't think there's any chance of that, but if that were to happen, anti-EU sentiments elsewhere in Europe might grow. I think the reverse is more likely: That Brexit will serve to firm up EU support even more once the full effects become clear... I live in the UK, so I hope I'm wrong and that things will work out ok...

But to be honest it is in the interest of the other countries who want the EU to stay to make this really really hard on the UK. And the UK has almost no leverage (or has none to be precise).

So while I absolutely hate to see it happen because I've got lots of friends in the UK, this is either going to hurt badly (hard Brexit), or the UK will simply lose any ability to shape the future of the EU while accepting most of its rules. Don't see any middle ground as the middle ground would massively hurt all other EU countries so its not going to happen.

> And the UK has almost no leverage (or has none to be precise).

Exactly. The UK's main leverage in negotiations was "do what we want or we leave". Now that they're leaving, there's nothing left.

Scientists discover the world's biggest "if".

Ever wondered why the other EU countries didn't make much of a fuss over Brexit? It's because the UK had many privileges from the times when it was needed to establish the EU... and then it didn't even join the Euro. The UK has been an entry point for English speaking businesses into the European market, but it kept all the benefits from that behind an exchange barrier, which is not in the interest of the rest of EU countries. Now, many of those businesses will leave the UK and establish operations in the EU-Eurozone proper, directly contributing to strengthening the Euro instead of the GBP, which will become a further incentive for countries to stay in the EU.

As for the UK, there are other ways for it to survive and even thrive, but whether it will be good or not so much for most of its citizens, remains to be seen.

IOW Ireland is looking increasingly appealing.

More than that, the UK was kind of detached from continental issues, anyway. And it will still go through a potentially painful transition.

For most other members of the EU, leaving it would be extremely painful, due to much higher levels of integration. Issue a new currency, which will probably rated worse than the Euro, see bond rates spike, have to close borders again, for both people and capital. For most EU members leaving the EU would send their GDP tumbling double digit figures.

> There's no sign of anyone else leaving yet

Italy is helmed by Eurosceptical parties. They're committed to playing nice for now. But if their economic policies hit the rocks, it may be easier to blame the EU than structurally re-organise the Italian south.

But leaving the EU will solve none of Italy's problems. Immigration pressure will continue (without any Frontex help) and likely rise with actually closed borders in the north, funding for poorer regions via EU programmes be removed, working labour markets in the north will be closed off to Italian immigrants, tourism will suffer etc etc.

At least the UK could argue that it may get better trade deals, but what's in it for Italy?

> Immigration pressure will continue

This is not clear, particularly if a sovereign Italy ends up being much more aggressive with detaining, punishing and deporting unwanted entrants.

> At least the UK could argue that it may get better trade deals, but what's in it for Italy?

I don't think there's a rational reason that outweighs the downsides. That doesn't mean it won't be politically advantageous for the party in power.

I'm not arguing for Italy's exit. Just against the assertion that "there's no sign of anyone" other than Britain "leaving" [1].

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17470704

Being rational doesn't have anything to do with it sadly - at least beyond politician logic of "Does it help me gain/keep power?" sense. The big bad EU works well as a domestic scapegoat like Greece claiming being able to print drachma would help when several subcrisises were related to lack of foreign exchange currency for inputs like pharmaceuticals.

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