Also, I didn't understand your description of "returning any unclaimed premium back to customers, keeping a fee instead". Being not too familiar with insurance, can you give an example of how this would work?
Hopefully that could help you out in the mean time.
Regarding returning unclaimed premium - good question. The way insurers make money is by 1) collecting premiums and holding on to them, generating some interest, and 2) keeping more premium than they need to pay out in losses and expenses, which is called "Underwriting Profit."
Typically Home/Renters insurance is written in such a way that a company tries to keep 5-15% of premiums as Underwriting Profit.
We think that the conflict over underwriting profit is at the heart of why the insurance experience is bad - there's not much incentive in improving a user experience that you don't want users to use... So we want to give that 5-15% back in the good years where we don't need it to pay claims. So, what you would see is a dividend at the end of the insurance year. It's not going to be much, but it is "putting our money where our mouth is" on our commitment to policyholders.
Turns out that's really hard to do legally and financially - mutual insurers would technically do this, but starting one is a hugely capital intensive process. We're on the path, and hope to be able to share more about the process soon!
Isn't that what Lemonade initially tried to do? They ended up having to go to their charity angle because of rebate laws. How do you think you are different? Mutuals do not seem to have a competitive advantage when it comes to Loss Ratios...what is your thesis exactly? Not to mention Lemonade is running at almost 3x their filed Loss Ratio now.
End of the day, personal lines is a very competitive market, where insurers are happy to get a net ~95% combined ratio (including CAT). Why would you think you will do better?
I wish you the best, I do like your goal. I spent almost 15 years from post-college to ~present in insurance before moving on recently to something else here in SF. Ping me if you ever need anything or just want to bullshit about the industry :)
Property insurance attritional losses are fairly predictable, and reinsurance is there to smooth out Catastrophe loss years; they'll be there to support us and bring our Loss Ratio back under control. So key is to charge enough to cover attritional (i.e. predictable) losses + reinsurance premiums.
But yes in those bad years where there's no UW profit, there's no dividend - everyone's contribution was needed.
Obviously, this is a major source of profit for a insurance company, but I imagine is also used to refill reserves after a big payout year. Insurers must have been piling cash away for years after Andrew, Katrina, Sandy etc to recoop payouts. How would this balance with returning money on good years?
EDIT: I see the OP responded to you, and independently, I'll say he gave a great explanation and probably knows WTF he's doing. Didn't expect to see IBNR explained on HN!
And you are right - UW profit shouldn't be a big part, but it's a contentious issue right now with interest rates where they are. Since it shouldn't be a big part of our profit model, we're looking to put our money where our mouth is and return it.
You are right though that money needs to be set aside for bad years - in insurance we call it "reserving", and actually it is already accounted for before the 5-15%. It is stashed away in the loss ratio as "incurred but not reported" or is paid in reinsurance premiums, which are a fixed cost. 5-15% is what is left over after all that (and admin expenses).
"You are right though that money needs to be set aside for bad years - in insurance we call it "reserving", and actually it is already accounted for before the 5-15%. It is stashed away in the loss ratio as "incurred but not reported"
Is not correct. CAT reserves are not related to IBNR. IBNR is a) we know the loss has already occurred b) the policyholder has not reported the loss yet. (Or at least in a probabilistic sense, like the hurricane has landed, and we know it will take 10 days for all the claims to be reported, and that 2 days after landfall, say 20% of claims have been reported, and the other 80% of those hurricane claims will be reported over the next 8 days. So at that moment "2 days after landfall" the actuaries will estimate how much IBNR there is.)
What you described is a CAT reserve...it's a seperate reserve taking into account, say, over a 10 year period, the odds and severity of a CAT risk.
If you still are unclear about the distinction, please consult your local actuary or CPCU :-)