Here’s a longer look at the economic history:
https://www.paragon-re.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-...
For prices to double again in the Bay Area, you need to start seeing engineers earning $400k per year. It isn't going to happen.
Oh and by the way I have a house in Oakland that I bought in 2000 that has like quadrupled so I already won the lottery. I'm just trying to help others out here.
Rents and prices have disconnected about 2 years ago. Rents are flat or slightly down while housing prices have kept on going up.
Oh and your entire comment is based on the premise that tech isn't in a bubble (hint: it is).
And therefore one would think prospective buyers would look at this and conclude buying doesn't make economic sense. (I did at least: https://medium.com/@usaar33/why-you-shouldnt-buy-a-home-in-t...)
1. (older residents) Capital gain taxes. If your house is up by $1.5M, selling incurs capital gains on $1M ($500k excluded). That's nearly $300k (20% of value) in capital gains taxes owed -- a huge hit to move to a cheaper place. And if you stay in place and die? Your heirs don't have to pay cap gains at all.
2. (newer) Mortgage tax deductability grandfathering. New buyers have $750k mortgage interest be deductible; old buyers get $1M. Guess you aren't moving until you bought recently!
Looking at the sold houses in my neighborhood and the families that move in: a lot.