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Comment by Theodores | Hacker News Reader

So I will revise my expected date for the next stock market crash to 2021 then.

Retail is dying, nobody is buying or selling houses, there are the US tariff wars, more countries are buying/selling energy without buying dollars first, the UK is heading for Brexit, the Euro is heading for Brexit, Quantitive Easing has yet to come home to roost and there are plenty of bubbles.

Meanwhile, everyone has a job and tourism is booming.

I imagine the AirBnB advisors know more than me about these circumstantial factors and would not want to be doing their big sale on the wrong side of the inevitable recession/crash.

Best make hay whilst the sun shines.

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Actually this would be the best time to do a sale.

Valuations are high, meaning you get a lot of cash for your shares. Then when the recession happens, the buyers have the stock but you still have all the cash.

Yes, your stock suffers (but it will under any circumstance during a recession) - this way you have a lot of cash to invest (and acquire) undervalued assets.

That’s exactly what the GP is saying

> nobody is buying or selling houses

You must not live in the US then. Housing prices are climbing to all-time highs because of demand.

Yes, Redfin shows some of the properties at least in Seattle area are being sold at an exorbitant price (way more than asking price). Too few houses, too many buyers!

This is the result of (1) wealthier buyers (2) increased urbanization and (3) housing supply still playing catch up from 2008.

Nicer reasons than say, stagflation.

The buyers are likely to be overseas property investors - there is a lot of this in London

Yup, I purchased a house in the Seattle area in 2016 for 12% over the asking price. This year it appraised for 58% more than what we bought it for. Houses are regularly selling for over >10% over asking prices as soon as they're listed

Rates are rising in the US and Nike and retail in general has been making a strong comeback this year. Poster might just be a perma-bear type who has been waiting for the next recession since 2015

Plenty are trying to buy houses - they're just limited by how few people are selling houses...

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