Airbnb could plan to IPO by late 2020 | Hacker News Reader

Airbnb could plan to IPO by late 2020

techcrunch.com

44 pointsOurs9047 comments

Last time I traveled, I found a bunch of the places I saw on Airbnb listed on other sites for cheaper. More alarming, there were significantly more negative reviews on these other sites (even on a site like Booking), than there were on Airbnb.

I'm sure Airbnb will continue to grow, but it seems awfully saturated to me already. I'm amazed at how many listings there are for my neighborhood (in NYC). All these hosts with a dozen locations that they barely maintain. Hard to find verify a host actually cares about a place they rent.

I've noticed Airbnb reviews tend to be very generous. I'm not sure why.

I recently stayed with a friend at an Airbnb in Amsterdam. The bedroom had noise and smoke from a neighboring bar until around 5am, making it very difficult to sleep, even with the windows closed.

I didn't book the Airbnb, but I checked the reviews afterwards. Several people mentioned these problems, but still gave the place 4 or even 5 stars.

I'm not sure what would warrant a 1 star review for these folks short of an absolute nightmare.

At least for folks in the US, a five star rating system usually is:

1: absolute nightmare 2: N/A 3: N/A 4: It was pretty bad 5: Acceptable or better

Is that specifically for Airbnb? It isn’t the case for Amazon, app stores, TripAdvisor, or Yelp. among other places. Why would Airbnb be different?

Late response, but I think it has to due with social pressure. You may meet the host in person, and feel bad about giving someone you know "personally" a bad rating. Additionally, they are also rating you as a guest, so it may be awkward if you gave a bad rating when they give you a good one, so people skew the ratings up.

Current headline listed in HN: "Airbnb could plan to IPO by late 2020"

Actual headline on TechCrunch: "Airbnb aims to be ‘ready’ to go public from June 30, 2019, creates cash bonus program for staff"

That AirBnB could be ready for an IPO in 1 year is the way important date.

Interesting considering that a lot of cities and countries started war against this business model, it's highly regulated, restricted or completely banned.

Not interesting at all IMO. Better IPO before it's too late.

Then 2020 is too far.

Every day after today seems too late.

That's not even remotely a concern as far as their IPO goes. Airbnb's business is a spectacular success and will remain so. There's no serious threats on the horizon, that includes regulation and competition. They smashed their own 2017 forecast numbers, delivering $2.6 billion in sales and were profitable.

Do you think countries banning AirBnB has no effect on price of their shares?

Which countries are those?

Not countries, and not illegal _but_ :-) I personally know that Barcelona an Dublin have introduced laws that make it more difficult to have more apartments hit the market (Licences with heavy penalties)

It’s not all black and white, though. Limited supply pushes up the prices (and AirBnB’s earnings are a percentage of the total spend), licensing requirements remove a few unknowns, decrease the potential of the host running some kind of bait-and-switch scam and make a rental appear more legitimate from the guest’s point of view.

(typing this from an AirBnB apartment run by a licensed host in Barcelona)

My old home of Edinburgh has also talked about similar restrictions:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-427...

Japan

Japan, recently a few cities in Spain and Portugal, also UK Manchester and Cardiff have stricter regulations.

I’m not aware of any countries they’re outright banned from. But regardless, every company faces regulatory challenges at scale. I don’t see why this is any different.

I use a few platforms, including airbnb, when I look for accomodation. What makes airbnb better? The only different thing I noticed is that they validate my ID.

Of course the obvious answer is network effect, but I guess you're saying that's negligible here? I think I agree. I also think that a decentralized version, which can more easily avoid censorship, will deliver more value.

Is there a decentralized anything that has been successful outside of email?

Generally not unless there is an actual need for the decentralization. Otherwise it's easier and more profitable to build a centralized platform. BitTorrent is a decentralized success because there is an actual requirement that it is decentralized.

DNS, although the individual registries are each centralized.

The great Dyn attack of 2016 would disagree with you in practice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Dyn_cyberattack

BitTorrent Bitcoin

couch surfing

oops i guess not in terms of having a website. but it _feels_ totally different— like a distributed community— than all these top down financially motivated “sharing” economies.

Very easy to provide fake ID actually.

If you don't think regulation is a serious threat, you're crazy. The fact that Airbnb being completely outlawed is on the table in a lot of places should tell you that regulation is a big concern.

You don't think it's remotely a concern that a new law in Japan wiped out 40,000 Airbnbs overnight?

Not just cities and countries, lease agreements also increasingly have an explicit anti-Airbnb clause.

My lease has one.

Regulation poses a risk but if done in a non-destructive way it could actually legitimize Airbnb in the eyes of governments.

Airbnb has to comply though. There is regulation in NYC, and Airbnb doesn't help the city verify at all. So if you show up here, you never know if the cops are going to knock on your door.

I have a question, why do companies go public later into their lifespans? If I was Uber wouldn't I want to go public within a year or two of extreme success (2013-2014) where my popularity and reviews are higher to garner more interest and therefore more buyers at a higher initial price? Instead its maybe 8-10 years after launch where regulations and lawsuits have attacked the business model. Correct me if I'm wrong just wondering.

Part of a CFO's job is finding the cheapest capital source for the companies growth, sometimes that raising private equity and sometimes that is raising public equity (from IPOs).

Also, being public is a resource drain on the organization. You have to comply with SEC guidelines, employees have to be watched for insider trading, all of your company financials and other details are now public for the world to see. Sometimes the burden doesn't make sense for a high growth company.

So I will revise my expected date for the next stock market crash to 2021 then.

Retail is dying, nobody is buying or selling houses, there are the US tariff wars, more countries are buying/selling energy without buying dollars first, the UK is heading for Brexit, the Euro is heading for Brexit, Quantitive Easing has yet to come home to roost and there are plenty of bubbles.

Meanwhile, everyone has a job and tourism is booming.

I imagine the AirBnB advisors know more than me about these circumstantial factors and would not want to be doing their big sale on the wrong side of the inevitable recession/crash.

Best make hay whilst the sun shines.

> nobody is buying or selling houses

You must not live in the US then. Housing prices are climbing to all-time highs because of demand.

Yes, Redfin shows some of the properties at least in Seattle area are being sold at an exorbitant price (way more than asking price). Too few houses, too many buyers!

This is the result of (1) wealthier buyers (2) increased urbanization and (3) housing supply still playing catch up from 2008.

Nicer reasons than say, stagflation.

The buyers are likely to be overseas property investors - there is a lot of this in London

Yup, I purchased a house in the Seattle area in 2016 for 12% over the asking price. This year it appraised for 58% more than what we bought it for. Houses are regularly selling for over >10% over asking prices as soon as they're listed

Rates are rising in the US and Nike and retail in general has been making a strong comeback this year. Poster might just be a perma-bear type who has been waiting for the next recession since 2015

Actually this would be the best time to do a sale.

Valuations are high, meaning you get a lot of cash for your shares. Then when the recession happens, the buyers have the stock but you still have all the cash.

Yes, your stock suffers (but it will under any circumstance during a recession) - this way you have a lot of cash to invest (and acquire) undervalued assets.

That’s exactly what the GP is saying

Plenty are trying to buy houses - they're just limited by how few people are selling houses...

Reply on news.ycombinator.com