Or maybe the value of colonising a planet relative to the cost just does't make it worth it by the time you have the technology to try.
Maybe every advanced civilisation ends up turning inwards to simulations rather than outwards. Maybe there are aliens all around us, but we can't notice them, because we're living in someones phone, in the latest top-hit: SimHumans5000.
There's quite literally an infinite number of possibilities where we're not alone after all, and part of the problem is that we don't just not know the values to plug into the relevant probability calculations, but we don't even know all the variables.