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I agree with you about it being exciting, but Waymo haven't actually ordered the minivans - the press release says up to 62,000 minivans, so the actual size of the order is not clear.

https://venturebeat.com/2018/05/31/waymo-orders-62000-fiat-c...

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These deals are often structured with outs and progressive volume so you’re probably correct. Realistically they probably ordered 500 minivans with a deal to get more based on some targets.

You're spot-on here. The 62k number is almost certainly the negotiated volume pricing amount they negotiated as a maximum under the current contract to get favorable pricing. I would be highly surprised if the actual order volumes are more than a few hundred at a time for the next couple years.

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